Huffington Post
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Jeffry Picower Dead: Madoff Friend Found At Bottom Of Pool
PALM BEACH, Fla. — Jeffry Picower, a philanthropist accused of profiting more than $7 billion from the investment schemes of his longtime friend Bernard Madoff, was found at the bottom of the pool at his oceanside mansion and died Sunday, police said. He was 67.
Picower's wife discovered his body and pulled him from the water with help from a housekeeper, authorities said. He was pronounced dead at Good Samaritan Medical Center at about 1:30 p.m.
Palm Beach police are investigating the death as a drowning, but have not ruled out anything on the cause of death.
Picower's body showed no visible injuries, said Joseph Sekula, spokesman for the Palm Beach Fire Department.
"There wasn't anything noted as far as trauma or anything to the body," he said, adding that "it did appear that he was swimming because he was wearing swimming trunks."
Picower's wife told responders she had seen her husband just 15 minutes before finding him in the pool, but she did not specify whether she saw him in the pool or elsewhere, Sekula said.
Detectives were still at the home more than six hours after the initial 911 call. The iron gate to his long driveway was open and several Palm Beach police cars were parked near the mansion. The home and property is worth more than $33 million, according to the county property appraiser's records.
Picower had been accused by jilted investors of being the biggest beneficiary of Madoff's schemes.
In a lawsuit to recover Madoff's assets, trustee Irving Picard demanded Picower return more than $7 billion in bogus profits. Irving Picard did not immediately respond to a phone message left at his office Sunday. Madoff's attorney, Ira Sorkin, also didn't respond to a request for comment.
Picower and his wife started the Picower Foundation in 1989, which has given millions to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Human Rights First and the New York Public Library. It also funded diabetes research at Harvard Medical School.
The foundation, whose assets were managed by Madoff, said in its 2007 tax return its investment portfolio was valued at nearly $1 billion.
After the Madoff scandal broke in December, the Picower foundation said it would have to cease grant-making and would be forced to close.
But the trustee's lawyer said Picower's claims that he was a victim "ring hollow" because he withdrew more of other investors' money than anyone else during three decades of investing with Madoff and should have noticed signs of fraud.
According to the lawyers, Picower's accounts were "riddled with blatant and obvious fraud," and he should have recognized that because he was a sophisticated investor.
Picower had asked that the lawsuit be dismissed, saying it was unsupported by the facts. Messages left for Picower's lawyer, William Zabel, and his wife's attorney, Marcy Harris, weren't immediately returned Sunday.
Madoff is serving a 150-year prison sentence after he admitted losing billions of dollars for thousands of clients over a half-century career that saw him rise to be a Nasdaq chairman.
Jonathan Landers, an attorney representing a large group of victims, said in an e-mail that it was impossible to tell what effect Picower's death would have on efforts to recover funds lost in Madoff's massive Ponzi scheme.
"While there are allegations regarding his knowledge of the Madoff fraud and his possible liability to investors, none have been proven," he wrote. Landers added that even if such facts could be proved, Picower's "death could make it easier or more difficult to obtain and collect on claims."
"It may cause those who have control of his assets to fight harder because there is no longer any personal dignity or desire to settle and move on," he wrote.
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Associated Press writers Lisa Orkin Emmanuel in Miami and Cristian Salazar in New York City contributed to this report.
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ABA Protests: National Bankers Convention Draws Protesters From Across The Country
The American Bankers Association's annual convention in Chicago has become the scene for a series of major protests, which are set to continue through Tuesday. Dubbed "the Showdown in Chicago." (Check back here frequently for updates on the protests.)
Groups like the National People's Action, the Service Employees International Union, Americans For Financial Reform and the AFL-CIO are expected to turn out with thousands of protesters. Sen. Richard Durbin (D - Illinois) is scheduled to address the protesters Sunday evening. Conference speakers include Newt Gingrich, conservative columnist George Will and FDIC chairman Sheila Bair.
(For more information on the protests, read Huffington Post blogs by economist Dean Baker, the AFL-CIO's Rich Trumka and the SEIU's Anna Burger.)
The ABA's convention is already underway, and some early images of the protests are trickling in. From the SEIU's blog, here's an early report from the scene:
"The Wall Street bankers are in Chicago this weekend for the American Bankers Association conference - and they've decided to do one good deed for the people of Chicago while they're here. They are helping to renovate a house that had been foreclosed... by them.It's a nice gesture on the bankers' part, but a completely empty one. In the time it took them to help fix up that one house, banks were kicking 1,440 families out of homes across the country; that's one foreclosed home every 7.5 seconds."
Also, from the SEIU's blog, here's a picture of a banner that greeted conference attendees during their riverboat cruise through Chicago earlier today:

Got any tips, images or direct reports from the scene of the protests? Help us tell the story of the ABA protests by uploading your images and by telling us what's happening at the scene. Participate below!
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Gisele Shows Off Her Baby Bump
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Madonna & Children Return To Malawi To Launch School
LILONGWE, Malawi — Madonna arrived in Malawi Sunday to visit the girls school she is building in the impoverished country where she adopted two children, an official for the star's charity said.
The official who could not be named because he was not authorized to speak on the matter said Madonna arrived at about 2:30 p.m. (1230 GMT; 8:30 a.m. EDT) on Ethiopian Airlines.
The 51-year-old celebrity was accompanied by her four children – Lourdes, 13, Rocco, 9, as well as her two adopted children. Madonna adopted the Malawian-born Mercy, 3, this year and David, 4, in 2008.
The official said Madonna would take part in a groundbreaking ceremony for the school on Monday.
Madonna's Raising Malawi, a charity founded in 2006 when she first visited the country, helps feed, educate and provide medical care for some of Malawi's orphans.
Malawi, a nation of 12 million, is one of the poorest countries in the world. About 500,000 children have lost a parent to AIDS.
Madonna will also meet with President Bingu wa Mutharika and visit some of the orphanages her charity supports.
The school she is building for poor girls is on the outskirts of the capital and is similar to the one built by talk show host Oprah Winfrey in South Africa.
More on Madonna -
Companies Are Gaming The System To Beat Wall Street Expectations
CHICAGO — More than 80 percent of major companies reporting third-quarter results this month have beaten Wall Street expectations. So is business that good? No. Are companies gaming the system? Yes.
Corporate America has a habit of low-balling the earnings forecasts used by analysts to determine their estimates. That way, the bar is lower, and companies can easily jump over when the quarter's results are announced – even if profits and revenues have fallen off a cliff.
"Over the last decade, there's been a distinctive tendency for companies to underpromise and overdeliver," says Dirk van Dijk, chief equity strategist of Zacks Investment Research. "Lately companies are being even more cautious. They realize investors can very harshly punish any company that disappoints."
Beating expectations generally gives share prices a quick lift, but the news can mislead investors about the real state of the business – and just how far this economic recovery has to go. In fact, of the companies reporting third-quarter results so far, 60 percent have posted lower net income compared with a year ago.
Still, the recession has, if anything, accelerated the flow of positive earnings "surprises" as companies play it safe and issue more conservative earnings forecasts. Over the past two years, 65 percent of earnings reports have beaten estimates. Even after last fall's financial crisis, the following two quarters produced nearly twice as many beats as misses.
And this quarter, 81 percent of the first 199 companies listed on the Standard & Poor's 500 index that reported earnings came in above expectations.
The expectations game works like this.
Corporation X announces weeks or months ahead of time that it expects to earn, say, 55 to 60 cents per share. Analysts look at various measures of the company's financial and operating performance while compiling forecasts, but rely heavily on guidance from management. The resulting consensus forecast might be around 57 cents a share.
On earnings day, the company then reports 61 cents per share. It can rightfully say it beat analyst expectations, and shares rise. Other investors jump on the bandwagon.
The company has some ability to control the number since analysts and most media focus on the so-called adjusted earnings, which can leave out huge one-time charges such as write-offs for restructuring expenses that otherwise could drag down overall results.
The expectations game has been played since the 1990s, when analysts' aggregate predictions became widely available on the Internet.
But the focus on expectations can distract investors from more meaningful numbers. This past summer, earnings stories trumpeted how banks did better than expected. But in stressing the surprise factor, many investors lost sight of the fact that earnings were down considerably for most banks and that troubles still shadow the sector.
In the last 15 years, 61 percent of earnings reports by the nation's largest publicly traded companies – those listed on the S&P 500 – have surpassed Wall Street's consensus estimates. Only 21 percent fell short, while 18 percent matched estimates, according to Thomson Reuters data.
There has never been a single quarter during that period when more companies have missed earnings than beat the Street.
Some companies are more blatant about managing expectations than others.
Apple Inc. is notorious for lowballing its outlooks. The computer maker topped analysts' estimates on Monday for the 27th quarter in a row. It has not come up short on earnings day since the first quarter of 2001. Apple declined to comment on the trend.
Then there's Cisco Systems Inc., which once beat forecasts by exactly 1 cent per share for 13 straight quarters, from 1998-2001. Coming within a penny so many times during that period merely shows the company was "conservative and transparent in communicating quarterly business conditions to investors," according to spokesman Terry Alberstein.
Stock analysts cannot automatically be blamed for consistently erring on the low side. Until results become public, they must depend in large part on what companies disclose about their performance. A company may deliberately give low guidance so it can top expectations, but that's hard for analysts to counter without evidence.
Brian Marshall, a technology analyst for the brokerage firm Broadpoint AmTech, says Apple's guidance is "almost absurdly low" but there's only so much analysts can do.
"The funny part is, people, including myself, try to see through it," he says.
He inputs hundreds of numbers into his forecast model each quarter, such as gross profit margin, average selling price for various products, the company's past guidance and earnings, and data from other manufacturers and suppliers. Analysts also weigh whether a company has a history of issuing earnings results that do not include special accounting charges.
Marshall's estimates for Apple's latest quarter were the highest on Wall Street. Yet the company topped his expectations by 16 cents per share and $200 million in sales. Its stock jumped 5 percent on the news.
Analysts also may have their reasons for wanting to stay on management's good side.
Companies are required to disclose material information to all investors at the same time. But their top executives can still show up at a firm's annual conference or talk about the industry, notes David Weild, senior adviser at accounting firm Grant Thornton.
"It's pretty widely known that the big-cap companies who are highly sought after can withhold access to get the results they're looking for, and that includes managing down expectations," Weild says.
Carefully managed by companies or not, expectations matter.
A study of stock returns from 1994-2007 concluded that analyst forecasts were the second-most influential force on price movements. Management forecasts topped the list, according to Beverly Walther, an accounting professor at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management who co-authored a newly released report.
Estimates by analysts carry particular impact when results do not match up. A company's stock price tends to fall much more on a "negative surprise," or miss, than it rises on a positive surprise. Either way, the momentum from beating or missing an estimate can affect a company's stock price for weeks afterward, Walther said.
But the market impact may be a bit more muted than it was before last year's meltdown. Failing to meet expectations still moves the market, but "it's not as dramatic now," says Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist for Advisors Asset Management, an investment advisory firm.
"There's a lot of cynicism right now toward estimates – among investors, among everybody," Lloyd says. Because so many economists and analysts failed to see the financial crisis coming, he says, "there's a little more paranoia and distrust."
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AP Technology Writer Jessica Mintz in Seattle contributed to this report.
More on Economy -
Webb: I'll Vote For Cloture On Health Care Bill
Democratic Sen. Jim Webb gave the Obama administration a mixed report card Sunday on CNN's State of the Union: questioning the administration's approach to health care reform but praising its approach to the war in Afghanistan. On health care reform, Webb suggested that President Obama had pursued the wrong strategy to gain passage of Obama's key domestic agenda item during the first year of his presidency. [...]
Notwithstanding his differences with the process the White House chose to pursue, Webb told CNN Chief National Correspondent John King that he has given his commitment to support Democratic efforts to break any filibuster of the health care reform bill.
More on Health Care -
Elderly Couple "Royally Duped" By Health Care Company: Plan Wasn't Insurance At All
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Obama: Iraq Attacks Attempt To Derail Progress
WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama said Sunday's "outrageous attacks" outside government offices in the Iraqi capital "reveal the hateful and destructive agenda of those who would deny the Iraqi people the future that they deserve."
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the "savage" suicide bombings attacks will not succeed in undermining Iraq's progress toward stability, self-reliance and justice based on the rule of law.
The White House said Obama spoke to Iraq's president, Jalal Talabani, and prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, about nine hours after the suicide bombings, which killed 136 people. The blasts struck near the Justice Ministry and city government offices in downtown Baghdad. They were the worst attacks in more than two years and came ahead of national elections in January.
Obama said the attacks were an attempt to stop progress in Iraq, but he said they were no match "for the courage and resilience of the Iraqi people and their determination to build strong institutions."
"The United States will stand with Iraq's people and government as a close friend and partner as Iraqis prepare for elections early next year, continue to take responsibility for their future, and build greater peace and opportunity," the president said in a statement. "Together, we will continue to work for lasting security, dignity and justice."
No group claimed responsibility immediately following the blasts, but the Shiite-dominated government has been a target of Sunni insurgents.
"These bombings serve no purpose other than the murder of innocent men, women and children, and they only reveal the hateful and destructive agenda of those who would deny the Iraqi people the future that they deserve," Obama said.
"I strongly condemn these outrageous attacks on the Iraqi people, and send my deepest condolences to those who have lost loved ones," Obama said in a statement. "These bombings serve no purpose other than the murder of innocent men, women and children, and they only reveal the hateful and destructive agenda of those who would deny the Iraqi people the future that they deserve."
In her statement, Clinton said the U.S. would work together with Iraqis "to combat all forms of violence and attempts at intimidation."
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Michael Lynton And Amy Pascal: Sony's Tracy-Hepburn Act
DAYS after Michael Jackson died last summer, an executive at Sony Music phoned Amy Pascal, the co-head of the company's movie studio, to tell her that the pop singer had left hours upon hours of rehearsal tapes for his planned run of 50 concerts in London. [...]
The Jackson deal was just the latest coup from a pair who are putting on a leadership display that is rare in any industry, outside of family-run businesses: a man and woman, equal partners, at the helm, and operating in sync. It has worked at Sony Pictures, say executives who know both people, because Mr. Lynton checked his ego after first being offered the job alone, while Ms. Pascal has put aside her resentment at not getting the chance to run the show herself after a long run at the studio.
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GeoCities Closing: Yahoo GeoCities To Shut Down October 26
Think Progress
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Perino: Obama’s Criticism Of Fox Is Akin To Chavez’s Tactics, Sets A Bad Example For ‘Emerging Democracies’
Today on Fox News Sunday, host Chris Wallace made sure to devote plenty of time to covering President Obama’s “war on Fox News”; he even played a clip of Sean Connery as Jim Malone “The Untouchables” talking about “the Chicago way” of getting things done. Former Bush press secretary Dana Perino sharply criticized the Obama administration’s tactics and expressed absolute shock at the example the United States was setting for “the free press in emerging democracies,” comparing the criticisms of Fox News to when “Hugo Chavez shuts down television stations”:
PERINO: That was a coordinated, calculated attack. It was unbecoming. And if you look at some of the coverage of what mainstream media covers when, for example, somebody like a Hugo Chavez shuts down television stations, he calls them illegitimate.
Now, I’m not suggesting that this White House believes that they are going to come over here and shut down Fox News. But they are defining a narrative in their first year, and it’s going to be very hard to recover from it. [...]
Through our State Department, we are trying to help emerging democracies get journalists and government officials to talk to one another, because freedom of the press is essential to any democracy. Believe me, they are watching this, and they have — surely are raising questions.
Watch it:
The Obama administration, according to Reporters Without Borders, is actually setting quite a strong example of press freedom for the world. In 2008, the organization found that in terms of press freedom, the U.S. ranked 36th out of 173 countries. Its report singled out “wars carried out in the name of the fight against terrorism” as a cause for the steep decline in press freedoms around the world. Just one year later, the United States has jumped from 36th to 20th. “Barack Obama’s election as president and the fact that he has a less hawkish approach than his predecessor have had a lot to do with this,” concluded Reporters Without Borders.
So what type of example did the Bush administration set? A few lowlights:
– The Pentagon had a secret program to use retired military analysts to “generate favorable news coverage of the administration’s wartime performance.” Most of these analysts had “ties to military contractors vested in the very war policies they are asked to assess on air.” When the “message machine” became public, Perino defended the program as “absolutely appropriate.”
– The U.S. military was “secretly paying Iraqi newspapers to publish stories written by American troops in an effort to burnish the image of the U.S. mission in Iraq.” The articles contained anonymous quotes from U.S. military officials — which may or may not have been authentic — and “read more like press releases than news stories.”
– The Education Department paid conservative pundit Armstrong Williams hundreds of thousands of dollars to promote Bush’s No Child Left Behind law. Even after the corruption was uncovered, the administration defended it as “a permissible use of taxpayer funds.”
– The Government Accountability Office found that the Bush administration violated anti-propaganda laws when it disguised two promotional ads — on federal drug policy and Medicare — as news reports. The “reports” aired on dozens of stations, and the GAO “faulted the administration for distributing seemingly independent, ready-to-air reports that did not inform viewers that they came from the government.”
Bush also called a New York Times reporter “a major league asshole” — and never apologized. In fact, Bush never gave the NYT a single interview throughout his presidency. The White House frequently went after NBC News, and Perino has admitted that they essentially froze out MSNBC “towards the end.”
Transcript:
WALLACE: Enough. I’m tired of asking my wacky question. I want to turn to one last thing, and that is the latest chapter in the Obama White House’s war on Fox News and what some people are calling the administration’s Chicago way of doing business.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEAN CONNERY AS JIM MALONE: He pulls a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. That’s the Chicago way.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WALLACE: That’s the Chicago way. You’ve got to love Sean Connery in that.
Dana, the latest chapter in the Chicago way was that the administration made an effort this week to use the White House pool — that’s the — all the five major networks — to try to exclude Fox from interviewing pay czar Ken Feinberg.
The White House now says, Well, it was just an honest mistake. Question: When you were in the Bush White House, did you ever try to do that against CBS when they were trashing President Bush? Or do you know of any White House that’s ever tried to use the White House pool to eliminate somebody, to kick somebody out?
PERINO: Certainly not with the pool. I mean, there are ways to exclude doing interviews with other networks, such as what happened to Fox News about four weeks ago when President Obama did all the other networks and decided not to do this one.
But you never use the pool. It’s a huge no-no. And I was glad to see that the reporters in the — in the room decided to stand up and have solidarity, because they could be next in this Chicago-style way.
WALLACE: And what do you make — it was happening as we were on the air a week ago today — of Rahm Emanuel and David Axelrod going on other Sunday talk shows and, in effect, lecturing the mainstream media Fox is not a legitimate news organization and don’t follow them?
PERINO: That was a coordinated, calculated attack. It was unbecoming. And if you look at some of the coverage of what mainstream media covers when, for example, somebody like a Hugo Chavez shuts down television stations, he calls them illegitimate.
Now, I’m not suggesting that this White House believes that they are going to come over here and shut down Fox News. But they are defining a narrative in their first year, and it’s going to be very hard to recover from it.
The best thing they could do is try to find a way to, you know, give a — send out an olive branch, try to get this behind them and to move on.
WALLACE: You were telling me earlier — and we’ve only got about 45 seconds left — that you deal with the free press in emerging democracies and you worry about the message being sent.
PERINO: Every — everyone across the world watches and listens to everything that the White House is saying.
Through our State Department, we are trying to help emerging democracies get journalists and government officials to talk to one another, because freedom of the press is essential to any democracy. Believe me, they are watching this, and they have –surely are raising questions.
And the next time we go to them and say, You want to make sure that you have reporters covering this, they’ll say, Why should we do that? You don’t.
WALLACE: Thank you, Dana.
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Former Fox News contributor: I left the network because I was ‘uncomfortable’ with Glenn Beck.
Today on CNN’s Reliable Sources segment, Washington Post reporter Howie Kurtz hosted Jane Hall, associate professor in the School of Communication at American University, to discuss the Obama administration’s criticisms of Fox News. Hall was a contributor to the network for 11 years and a frequent guest on The O’Reilly Factor and Fox News Watch. Kurtz asked Hall why she left Fox and whether she felt like she was “being used to give Fox a certain degree of legitimacy.” Hall replied that part of the reason she left was because of how “scary” Glenn Beck is:
HALL: No, I didn’t. The reason I left was in part because they’ve had less debates than they used to. It is a fair point to say how much debate is there on MSNBC? How many Republican strategists? We have a bifurcation of the media.
KURTZ: Wait a second. The reason you left is because you feel they have less debate than they used to. In other words, it used to be Hannity and Colmes, now it’s just Hannity. It used to be Bernie and Jane. Now it’s just Bernie.
HALL: I think there’s less debate than there was. And I’m also, frankly, uncomfortable with Beck, who I think should be called out as somebody whose language is way over the top. And it’s scary.
KURTZ: Was that a factor in your decision to leave Fox?
HALL: Yes, it was.
Watch it:
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Podesta: Bush Administration Spent Only One Hour On Afghanistan Report It Handed Off To Obama
For weeks, former Bush administration officials have been attacking President Obama for “dithering” on whether to send more troops to Afghanistan, with Vice President Cheney saying that “signals of indecision out of Washington hurt our allies and embolden our adversaries.” But these Bush officials are also facing criticisms for largely neglecting Afghanistan in order to invade Iraq. In response, they have been citing an Afghanistan strategy report they handed off to the Obama administration that clearly laid out recommendations for moving forward. From Cheney’s recent remarks to the Center for Security Policy:
In the fall of 2008, fully aware of the need to meet new challenges being posed by the Taliban, we dug into every aspect of Afghanistan policy, assembling a team that repeatedly went into the country, reviewing options and recommendations, and briefing President-elect Obama’s team. They asked us not to announce our findings publicly, and we agreed, giving them the benefit of our work and the benefit of the doubt.
Today on ABC’s This Week, Center for American Progress President and CEO John Podesta revealed that the Bush administration spent just one hour on that report:
PODESTA: [T]hey did present him with a report at the very end of the Bush administration, but I have it from reliable sources that the principals in the Bush administration spent one hour on that report before they handed it off to Obama.
Watch it:
Recently, Sen. Ted Kaufman (D-DE) — a former top aide to Biden and co-chair of the Vice President’s transition team — said that the Bush administration basically just “threw” the report “to the transition team as they were going out the door”:
KAUFMAN: So for him [Cheney] to come in at the end and say, “Well, we did it wrong for eight years. But then, in the end, we gave them a plan which really is what they should have used.” Let me tell you something: This administration came in. Rahm Emanuel was there. I was on the transition team on this. They started from scratch on Afghanistan. They took a blank piece of paper out and said, “What are we going to do to get this thing done?” … It was absolutely the perfect time to take a hard look at what we’re doing.
Also on This Week, conservative pundit George Will praised Obama’s process on Afghanistan, stating, “Well, also, a bit of dithering might have been in order before we went into Iraq in pursuit of non-existent weapons of mass destruction. So for a representative of the Bush administration to accuse someone of taking too much time is missing the point.”
Transcript:
WILL: Well, also, a bit of dithering might have been in order before we went into Iraq in pursuit of non-existent weapons of mass destruction. So for a representative of the Bush administration to accuse someone of taking too much time is missing the point. We have much more to fear in this town from hasty than from slow government action.
The question of whether an actual troop request was made with any sense of urgency is not clear to me. The fact that one is being made by McChrystal — and whether it’s 40,000 or whether the 40,000 represents a negotiated down from 80,000 request is something that I don’t know and we should know after careful, protracted deliberation.
PODESTA: I think that the deliberation that’s going on is actually exemplary, and I completely agree with George on this. It seems that the Bush administration, for eight months, did sit on Gen. McKiernan’s request for more troops, which Obama —
STEPHANOPOULOS: But that’s because the troops just weren’t there. It wasn’t the President saying, “I’m not going to do this if the troops are there.” They just didn’t have them.
PODESTA: Well, I don’t know, I never heard Vice President Cheney going off and giving a speech assaulting President Bush for not acting on those requests at that time. And they did present him with a report at the very end of the Bush administration, but I have it from reliable sources that the principals in the Bush administration spent one hour on that report before they handed it off to Obama.
So they handed him off a problem, and it’s a deep and difficult one, and I think he’s doing the appropriate thing by taking his time before he commits to not what looks to be surge, but what looks to be something that would commit the United States to these high troop levels for a very long time in Afghanistan.
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Hatch bucks Cheney: ‘I would never want to call my president dithering.’
Despite his own failures in Afghanistan (namely turning valuable resources away from the war and invading Iraq), former Vice President Dick Cheney attacked President Obama this week, saying he is “afraid to make a decision” on the war in Afghanistan and that he’s “dithering.” Today on CNN, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) disagreed with Cheney’s assessment. “Well, I would never want to call my president ‘dithering,’” Hatch said, adding, “And I know it’s a tough position that he’s in.” Later, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) was far more blunt in criticizing Cheney’s remarks:
BROWN: Look, to listen to Dick Cheney who was the mastermind of the most failed decade of foreign policy that this country has had, at least in my political lifetime, perhaps my whole lifetime, perhaps my parents’ lifetime too. I mean to listen to him when he talked about dithering when their mistake was to attack Iraq and lose sight of Afghanistan as President Abdullah, sorry as Dr. Abdullah, presidential candidate Abdullah said that eight years of failure of Karzai implicitly is also eight years of failure of dithering by that administration, so just take Dick Cheney’s advice off the table.
Watch it:
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Geraldo Rips Lou Dobbs For Latino-Bashing Rhetoric, Says He ‘Is Not Coming To Fox News’
Speaking at a luncheon sponsored by the Spanish newspaper El Diario La Prensa on Thursday, Fox News host Geraldo Rivera said, “One of the aspects of our reality in the United States now is the defamatory tone of the immigration debate and how that immigration debate has slandered an entire race of people.” Rivera proceeded to lay much of the blame at the feet of CNN’s Lou Dobbs:
Lou Dobbs, a man who was an accomplished journalist, and who left to go and start his own venture in the digital media, having to do with space, I believe, and then came back to CNN, and nobody was watching his program. He discovered that one of the way to get people to watch was to make of the image of a young Latino trying to get into this country a profoundly negative icon. Lou Dobbs is almost single-handedly responsible for creating, for being the architect of the young-Latino-as-scapegoat for everything that ails this country.
Rivera’s criticism echoes that of his Fox colleague John Stossel, who said he doesn’t “subscribe to Lou Dobbs-kind of rants about immigrants wrecking America.” (Dobbs subsequently called Stossel a “self-important ass” with “myopic idiocy.”
The New York Times reported recently that Dobbs met with Fox News chief Roger Ailes to discuss possibly joining the Fox Business network. Rivera said in his speech that he was so opposed to Dobbs joining Fox News that he called his boss and received assurance that the network was not going to hire the CNN host:
No more of these lies, no more of this slander, no more of this stereotyping. I can tell you proudly, when this man [Dobbs] was widely rumored to be coming to my network, I called my boss couple of weeks ago, and he said it’s absolutely untrue. Lou Dobbs is not coming to Fox News. He belongs at CNN if they can justify his presence there that’s their problem.
Watch it:
Latino and pro-immigrant activists have launched two campaigns, Drop Dobbs and Basta Dobbs, which are aimed at pressuring CNN to “hold Mr. Dobbs to journalistic standards” or dump him altogether.
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CNN Edits Out Dobbs Criticism From Taped Interview
This week, CNN aired a new four-hour documentary called “Latino in America,” exploring how Latinos are reshaping American communities and culture. The broadcast sparked protests in cities around the country, including outside CNN’s headquarters in Atlanta, with minority groups calling on the network to fire anti-immigration crusader and serial misinformer Lou Dobbs. The New York Times reports that CNN “has not commented on the protests or covered them on its news programs.” But not only has CNN ignored the Dobbs protests, the network edited out criticism of Dobbs from civil rights lawyer Isabel Garcia during a taped interview with controversial Arizona Sheriff Joe Arapaio that aired on Anderson Cooper 360 this week:
[Garcia] who was featured in “Latino in America” and organized an anti-Dobbs protest in Tucson on Wednesday, said that CNN edited her comments about the anchor out of an interview. [...]
She said she called Mr. Arpaio and Mr. Dobbs “the two most dangerous men to our communities,” and said that “because of them, our communities are being terrorized in a real way.” She also asserted that CNN was “promoting lies and hate about our community” by broadcasting Mr. Dobbs’s program. The comments were not included when the interview was shown Wednesday night. “They heavily deleted what I did get to say,” she said.
This isn’t the first time CNN has circled the wagons around Dobbs. Earlier this year, Dobbs was one of the most prominent mainstream media figures pushing the conspiracy theory that President Obama may not have been born in the U.S. Dobbs repeatedly called on Obama to “produce a birth certificate” and said it’s “unfortunate” that the birthers have been “dismissed.” Despite Dobbs’ hysteria and playing on “escalating white fear,” CNN president Jonathan Klein downplayed Dobbs’ antics, claiming the CNN anchor was merely reporting on the birther “phenomenon” and had simply asked why “some people doubt” Obama’s citizenship.
Moreover, while discussing race issues last year on the air, Dobbs became agitated, and it appeared that he was about to say “cotton picking” (often used as a racially charged slur) in reference to then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. But he caught himself, only uttering the word “cotton.” In the official transcript of the show, CNN omitted “cotton” from Dobbs’ remarks.
While Dobbs has been quick to jump on right-wing conspiracy theories targeting Obama (including recently peddling a fake thesis purportedly written by Obama that trashes the Constitution, the Founding Fathers and free markets), his hateful anti-immigrant rhetoric has been ongoing for years. Now, Latino and pro-immigrant activists have launched two campaigns, Drop Dobbs and Basta Dobbs, which are aimed at pressuring CNN to “hold Mr. Dobbs to journalistic standards” or dump him altogether.
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John McCain — ‘Tech Troglodyte’ And Top Recipient Of Telecom Cash — Unveils Bill To Block Net Neutrality
On Thursday, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) became the Republican Party’s lead man on technology issues (and probably made Glenn Beck a happy man) by introducing the “Internet Freedom Act.” The legislation would prohibit the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) from making sure that Internet service providers don’t create a pay-for-play system where they could selectively block or slow content and applications. McCain called these net neutrality rules a “government takeover of the Internet.” From his press release:This government takeover of the Internet will stifle innovation, in turn slowing our economic turnaround and further depressing an already anemic job market. Outside of health care, the technology industry is the nation’s fastest growing job market. Innovation and job growth in this sector of our economy is the key to America’s future prosperity. In 2008, while most industries were slashing jobs in the worst economy in nearly 30 years, high tech industries actually added over 77,000 good high-paying jobs. Just this month, Google and Yahoo both released positive earnings reports.
First of all, it’s ironic that McCain cites Google and Yahoo as examples of why net neutrality rules need to be blocked. In fact, both companies have said that without such measures, the “longstanding openness of the Internet” will be threatened. From a letter they wrote to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in 2006:
Until FCC decisions made last summer, consumers’ ability to choose the content and services they want via their broadband connections was assured by regulatory safeguards. … This “innovation without permission” has fueled phenomenal economic growth, productivity gains, and global leadership for our nation’s high tech companies.
To preserve this environment, we urge the Committee to include language that directly addresses broadband network operators’ ability to manipulate what consumers will see and do online.
However, telecoms largely support blocking net neutrality rules, and McCain is a long-time friend of these businesses. McCain was the top recipient of campaign contributions from the telecom industry, taking in $894,379 in the past two years.
Even as chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee from 1997 to 2001 and again from 2003 to 2005, McCain made sure to craft technology rules that benefited his campaign donors. He opposed a program designed to provide discounts to schools and libraries to connect to the Internet and supported large telecom mergers.
Of course, the GOP point man on technology issues is someone who, just last year, called himself a computer “illiterate who has to rely on my wife for all of the assistance that I can get.” In July 2008, he said he has “never felt the particular need to e-mail.” As former FCC chairman Reed Hundt has explained, “Basically, John is a technological troglodyte, and proud of it” — and we’re now supposed to trust him to shape the way we use the Internet.
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Hoekstra campaigns against detention facility that Michiganders actually want.
Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI), who is currently running for governor, has been fighting the Obama administration over its plans to close Guantanamo Bay. The Michigan Republican, who believes waterboarding is legal, is concerned that terrorism suspects from Guantanamo “could be moved to Michigan.” Indeed, it has been rumored that the administration is considering moving some detainees to a maximum security facility in Standish, MI which is slated to shut down at the end of October. As Hoekstra raises unwarranted fears about the U.S.’s ability to maintain a secure facility, the residents of Standish aren’t buying it. The Standish City Council voted 6-0 this week in support of a resolution telling the administration to relocate detainees to their prison facility:Mayor pro-tem and council member Jerry Nelson, who wrote the resolution, said its purpose was to signal to the federal government his town’s readiness to continue discussing the possibility of transferring prisoners — whether state, federal or international — to Standish.
“We’re leaving all doors open; we don’t want to take the Gitmo option away,” Nelson told POLITICO. “This letter says we’re open to anything that keeps the prison running: It could be a federal prison for Gitmo detainees, it could house prisoners from other states, it could be sold to private ownership. We’re keeping all options on the table.”
The residents of Standish want to protect against “the loss of the 350 jobs provided by the prison.”
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Uninformed Hannity Tries To Provoke Culture War Over NYC Subway Atheist Ads
During his Fox News show on Tuesday night, right-wing pundit Sean Hannity attacked a new ad campaign soon to be appearing in New York City subway stations that raises awareness about atheism. The ad, sponsored by The Big Apple Coalition of Reason, reads: “A million New Yorkers are good without God. Are you?”
“These ads inform New Yorkers that a million or more of their neighbors are good without God,” said Michael De Dora Jr., the executive director for the New York branch of the Center for Inquiry. “That is, a million of us have found or created natural morality, and lead good, productive, and meaningful lives without appeal to religious dogma or God.”
Sensing an opportunity to exploit the ads for political benefit, Hannity told his audience that a Christian group could never get away with airing ads like that:
Can you imagine the outrage if a Christian group put pro-God ads in the New York City subways? What outrage.
Watch it:
But as Subway Sights — a blog about the NYC subway system — explains, “The problem with this thinking is that Christians have been putting up pro-Christianity ads in the subway for years and nobody cares.” The blogger continues, “There are ads for all kinds of competing churches, each offering their own flavor of Christianity and their own path to salvation,” and offers this photograph as evidence:

Subway Sights concludes, “Of course, Sean Hannity doesn’t factor this into his argument because he doesn’t ride the subway and has no idea what he’s talking about.”
Indeed, Hannity doesn’t seem to ride the subway. He has said, “I travel on private planes, I have an SUV that I’m proud of.” But his lack of knowledge never stops him from opining on things he knows little about.
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Michael Savage says Glenn Beck does a ‘reasonably good job copying people who are brighter than him.’
On his radio show yesterday, Michael Savage took issue with the Obama administration’s accusations of partisanship against Fox News, calling the entire controversy a “kabuki play” generated for ratings and a bid for News Corporation (Fox News’ parent company) to expand business. Savage also took aim at Glenn Beck, saying Beck might soon be muzzled with a “bit in his mouth” by his bosses at Fox News. Savage proceeded to call Beck a dim-witted con artist:
SAVAGE: Within 90 days, he has got a bit in his mouth and he’s moving on to something else. [...] I’m not impressed by him. I’ve seen the act before. I’m not for him or against him, he does a reasonably good job copying people who are brighter than him who have done their work before him and taking as many ideas from as many people as he can without giving anyone credit. I get that. There’s nothing new about that either. But, my prediction is he’s got a bit put in his mouth very very fast and or he’s going to be fired.
Listen here:
Savage isn’t the only top far-right talker to trash Beck. Last month, Mark Levin, another top 10 radio show host, called Beck “mindless,” “incoherent,” and “pathetic.”
MSNBC Politics
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Senator: Public option is close to gaining votes
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Obama urges banks to loan to small businessesBanks should return the favor they received in their recent taxpayer-financed bailout by lending more money to small businesses, President Barack Obama says.
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Health insurer profits not as fat as Dems claimIn the health care debate, Democrats have gone after insurance companies as rapacious profiteers. But health insurance profit margins are anemic compared with other a variety of industries.
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Obama: Swine flu a national emergency
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Alaskans await progress on Palin pipeline plan
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Patience, patients in health care gameIn a time of lingering recession, there is no more compelling pocketbook issue than health care overhaul. It's an effort that's intensely personal because it could affect every American.
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Who's biggest campaign spender ever?
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White House opens Web site coding to allA programming overhaul of the White House's Web site has set the tech world abuzz. For low-techies, it's a snooze — you won't notice a thing.
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EPA estimates Senate climate bill costsA Senate plan to tackle global warming would add about $100 a year to the energy costs for a typical American household, according to an analysis by the Environmental Protection Agency.
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GOP tackles health care in weekly addressRepublicans are asking voters a basic question about Democratic proposals to overhaul the nation's health care system: "Will this improve your life?"
BarackObama.com
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Message from Mitch Stewart: "That was fast"
From OFA Director Mitch Stewart:
On Thursday, Vice President Biden called out the insurance industry's escalating war on health reform in a special message to OFA, and asked for your help in fighting back. Sure enough, the insurance industry is already stepping up the attack: Reports just leaked from a closed-door meeting where insurance industry lobbyists frantically warned Republican members of Congress that it was not in their interest to "ever vote for this thing" and said supporting reform is like "giving comfort to the enemy." USA Today is reporting that groups opposing reform are lobbying at "a record pace" -- and the Associated Press notes that they've already spent an astounding $32 million on TV ads this year. This is what we're up against. President Obama, Vice President Biden, and all of us together through OFA are fighting back -- but success depends on having the resources to win. Can you chip in $25 or more today to power our campaign? In this fight, the insurance industry has their war chest and insider lobbyists. We have you. I know who I'm betting on. Let's win this thing. Mitch Mitch Stewart Director Organizing for America
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Health Reform Message from First Lady Michelle Obama
The White House released a new web video today featuring First Lady Michelle Obama. In the video, Mrs. Obama shares a personal story about youngest daughter Sasha’s health scare as a baby and explains why the President’s plan is essential to families and women in particular. The video also features Roxi Griffin, a cancer survivor who’s now being forced to choose between paying for medical tests and being able to afford to stay in her home (so far, she’s choosing her home), and Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius who explains how our current health care system discriminates against women when it comes to the services insurance plans cover - often not the services women need - and how they regularly charge women more than men for the same care. Watch it below:
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The fight
Earlier today, Vice President Joe Biden sent out the following email:
We've got a fight on our hands. Powerful insurance companies are pulling out all the stops to defeat the President's plan for health reform. They're spending seven million bucks a week on lobbyists, blanketing the country with deceptive TV ads, and just funded two high-profile "reports" to distort what reform would mean for you. I know their game. I was in the Senate the last time health reform came around, and I saw the special interests savage our efforts. Frankly, under the old rules of Washington they were nearly impossible to beat. But now, thanks to you, the rules are changing. All the lies, scare tactics and lobbyist shake-downs in the world are no match for the incredible work of Organizing for America supporters like you. That's exactly what frightens them so much -- and it's what Barack and I are counting on. After decades of false starts, we're now just a short time from finally passing real reform. Every member of Congress will soon have to cast their vote. As real change draws near, you can bet the insurance companies will hold nothing back. That means OFA will need the extra resources to beat back whatever attack they can dream up next. Here's the bottom line: it's not time to let up -- it's time to double down. Can you donate $25 or more to power OFA's fight for change as we head into the final round? When I talk about you changing the rules in Washington, here's what I mean: This week, crucial negotiations on Capitol Hill are shaping a comprehensive reform proposal. At the same time, the insurance companies' phony reports are grabbing headlines and their lobbyists are twisting arms. But your work is keeping them from setting us back. On Tuesday, OFA supporters around the country organized more than 1,000 local outreach events and generated an astounding 330,000 calls to Congress from constituents telling their representatives that "it's time to deliver." From my years in Congress and my conversations with Senate colleagues this week, I can tell you with confidence that your message broke through and you helped keep us on track. If this fight were only about guaranteeing the choice of secure, quality, affordable care for every American, it would be worth everything we could throw at it. But as Barack reminded us this week, this fight for change is now about something even bigger: a test of whether or not "we as a nation are capable of tackling our toughest challenges, if we can serve the national interest despite the unrelenting efforts of the special interests; if we can still do big things in America." I believe we can. And Barack believes we can. But what really matters is whether you believe we can. If you do, now is the moment to make it happen. Please contribute today: https://donate.barackobama.com/FinalRound Thank you, Vice President Joe Biden
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"Off the hook"
A message from Mitch Stewart, sent out very late last night:
It's late; I know you've gotten a lot of messages from us recently, and everyone here at OFA headquarters is pretty tired. But the last reports of calls and commitments are just coming in from events on the West Coast, and I wanted to share the news with you. As you know, we set a big goal: 100,000 calls to Congress placed or committed to in a single day by OFA supporters and allied organizations. By 2:30 p.m., you had crushed it. So, we gulped and said let's go for 200,000, not knowing what would happen. But the calls just kept pouring in -- keeping phones ringing off the hook in congressional offices in D.C. and your representatives' district offices around the country. Then, OFA supporters gathered in over 1,000 living rooms and community centers from Macon, Georgia to Missoula, Montana. You called hundreds of thousands of key voters in your community and got them to agree to call Congress and speak out for reform, too. President Obama joined in at a call party in New York -- and he had some amazing words of support for the folks like you who make this movement possible. I'm looking at the numbers, and with almost all of the reports now in, the tally wasn't 200,000 calls placed or pledged -- it was 315,023. You did it. Take a moment to watch the President's inspiring words to OFA volunteers on this incredible day.
Your voice was overwhelming -- with reports in the media of congressional offices "completely crushed with calls." CBS News described your effort as an "onslaught." And a congressional aide was quoted with a common response, saying their office was deluged by "pretty much non-stop health care calls from OFA." You set a new OFA record, you caught the national media's attention, and you certainly put Congress on notice. But you know that's not what really matters. The message I sent earlier talked about a woman, Jenny U., whose insurance company cut off her coverage because they decided her kidney donation to her sick daughter counted as a "pre-existing condition." What really matters is that today you brought America one giant, irreversible step closer to being a place where no one will ever have to suffer that kind of injustice again. That's what all the messages, late nights, and phone calls ultimately add up to. It's what makes everything we do together worthwhile -- and it's why we'll keep fighting together until the job is done. Watch President Obama's special message to you from a call party in New York: http://my.barackobama.com/TTDreport Thank you, so much, for being part of the team. Sincerely, Mitch Mitch Stewart Director Organizing for America P.S. -- Here are just a few stories from "Time to Deliver" events across the country: This evening I and three other volunteers got together and made calls. As I was calling, one of the women I spoke with told me that she was inspired by my story -- shared in the email earlier that day -- to get her entire family to call Congress. She didn't know it was me on the phone, but she said she just couldn't stop saying "this isn't right" when she heard my story. It gave me so much hope -- during the evening we made 213 calls and got 64 commitments to call tomorrow. -Jenny U., Missouri Volunteer Seeing the tally go up, hearing voter after voter agree to call, and listening to the real excitement people have about finally fixing this broken system, I was reminded why we do this. Each of us can only give so much -- but when we all do it together, we move mountains. Health insurance reform, here we come. -Sean Knox, California New Media Director I want to recognize the folks in this room -- and folks watching online -- who are helping us to do exactly that. And I want to thank all the Organizing for America volunteers for making calls, knocking on doors, and keeping up the fight. You know why this is so important. ... We are nearing the finish line -- and with your help, we're going to cross it. -President Barack Obama
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Surreal.
We wanted to reach 100,000 calls to Congress. We nearly tripled it.
What... a... night. Here in New York, people were lined up for blocks just to catch a glimpse of what was going on. Individuals were greeted at the door with a long, rectangular card. Each card had information about the President's plan as well as five unique numbers for event attendees to call.
The evening started off with New York State Director of Organizing for America, Melissa DeRosa, giving the 101 on what OFA does and why it is so important. While she was saying it, you were doing it. After Melissa, Ugly Betty actress and Generation 44 committee member America Ferrera took the stage as a voice for youth activists nationwide. She emphasized the importance of young people taking part in the dialogue and action that improves our country.
Following America, Dr. Manisha Sharma spoke to the crowd as both a physician and a patient. Dr. Sharma spoke about the importance of health insurance reform, and reminded us that healthcare is a right, not a privilege. She committed, as a physician, to support health insurance reform now, and re-expressed President Obama's statement that now is the "Time to Deliver".
OFA then took the stage. Julia Shannon, the OFA New York Field Director, led an open phonebank among the crowd with her colleagues Keith Kinch and Jeff Berman. Cell phones were handed out, and people started calling through the lists on their cards, asking even more New Yorkers to contact Congress themselves, in the true spirit of Organizing for America.
The phonebank was a perfect transition to introduce Democratic National Committee Chairman, Governor Tim Kaine. The Chairman recognized Organizing For America and the importance of their work at the DNC. He also highlighted all the energy that you have shown moving from the Presidential race to the new health reform campaign.
Next up: President Obama brought his energy (and his mop) to the stage.
President Obama thanked everyone from OFA, both present here at the Hammerstein Ballroom and on our webcast, for their continued knocking on doors and phone calls. He reminded us that even the most restrictive version of health reform yet passed through committee would guarantee coverage for over 29 million uninsured Americans. He welcomed honest debate and bipartisan participation, but drew the line at rooting for failure. He explained that when we all have work to do to clean up the mess we inherited, it's not time to stand around on the sidelines and complain, it's time to grab a mop. The crowd erupted in cheers. The spirit of participation and the excitement was truly incredible.
Thousands of people joined in, and still, we have events going on coast to coast. This is what organizing is all about. Thanks for an amazing night.
Rohit

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Watch Live: President Obama at a "Time to Deliver" Call Party
President Obama is scheduled to speak live at a New York call party starting at 8:05 p.m. Click here to watch a live webcast of the event.
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We're Fired Up and Ready to Go for the President's Speech!
We are FIRED UP and READY TO GO here in New York City! We hit our 100,000 goal EASILY today, and still so many of you are remaining active on the phones. Can you believe it? As a reflection of your hard work, we moved our goal up to 150,000 calls to members of Congress, and we ended up beating that, too.
Now, we have put the bar at 200,000 calls. This is unbelievable. With that said, we still have a few hours to go before the president speaks. It's been amazing watching the results of all the events going on across the country.
You can still be a part of this milestone day. Click here to find an event near you. Click here to call your member of Congress now.
On an interesting note, I was able to stand at the podium where the president will speak and saw the view he’ll see while standing here.
Pretty amazing. Enjoy the pictures. People are already lined up outside of the venue, fired up about the amazing things you've done on the ground today. The president will be speaking tonight at 8:00 p.m. EDT and you can watch it here live.
Air America
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On The Lionel Show: Friday, October 9, 2009 CE - VENTILATION FRIDAY
Give me a "C," a bouncy "C." Marilyn Maye. The incredible, inimitable Marilyn Maye. In the years since she first appeared in the spotlight as a tiny pre-teen vocalist in a series of amateur contests in Topeka, Kansas, she has received an endless stream of kudos. The late Johnny Carson called her “Super Singer.” (She appeared with Johnny 76 times.) Ella Fitzgerald dubbed her “The greatest white female singer in the world.” The Houston Chronicle termed her “A National Treasure.” And the prestigious Smithsonian Institution chose her recording of “Too Late Now” (from her RCA Lamp Is Low album) for inclusion in its Best Performers of the Best Compositions of the 20th Century permanent collection, along with such other singing greats as Billie Holiday, Frank Sinatra and Judy Garland. She's appearing at New York's Metropolitan Room October October 6-14, 16 & 17. I'm honored to have her with us.
When life imitates art and vice versa. Steve Sabol joins us. As president of NFL Films, Sabol continues to be the artistic vision behind the studio that revolutionized the way America watches football. Each season, Sabol inspires an ensemble cast of 300 creative personalities to produce hundreds of hours of original television programming for NFL Network. For his work Sabol has received 27 Emmy Awards for writing, cinematography, editing, directing, and producing. His endeavors into art are equally as amazing. See for yourself. That we shall discuss. Two artistes wax artistic artfully.
If it's Friday, it's Hirsen. James Hirsen is a New York Times best selling author, commentator, news analyst and law professor. If it's entertainment or Hollywood, Hirsen's got it covered.
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The H1N1 Conspiracy!
Conservative media figures oppose everything proposed by the Obama administration, even flu shots.
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Oklahoma Republicans For Limited Government (Unless You're A Woman)
Starting November 1, women in Oklahoma who have an abortion will see their medical records appear online, in order to enable more effective harassment of women by anti-abortion forces.
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Obama To Meet Gaga And Glee For LGBT Rights
President Barack Obama will be headlining the Human Rights Campaign dinner on Saturday, hours before the National Equality March on the Mall. Also headlining? Lady Gaga and the cast of "Glee." Can it get more awesome?
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Will GOP Love New Health Care Plan That Lowers Defecit?
From the very beginning, Republicans have been opposed to health insurance reform. And they have made no effort to hide it. It seems to be a combination of being unwilling to see the problem, the possibility of it costing their corporate donors a few pennies, or the possibility that if it succeeds, it will benefit the Democrats and President Obama. And they cannot abide by any of this! I should probably had added that they just don't give a damn about people who can't afford coverage. "Let em' die in the streets!"
I have heard the chants of socialism when the term "government doctor" was never uttered by anyone. I have heard the phrase "death panel" but none ever existed. And the phrase rationing when insurance companies accountable to no one do it now! And I have heard the term "fiscal irresponsibility." Hmmm...
So, I wonder how the Republicans will respond to Senate Finance Committee proposal for health care reform. It would expand coverage to 94% of Americans . . . and REDUCE federal deficits by $82 billion over the ten years? Any guesses? Isn't this a fiscal conservative's proverbial wet dream?
While I am not thrilled by the huge holes left in this plan, nearly 17 million U.S. citizens and legal residents would be excluded, it is a starting point. But I think that it is instructive in highlighting Republican silence. It is absolutely deafening!
Of course, this also highlights where the Republicans truly are. As they have never offered a legitimate proposal, there interest is in the status quo. And as they cheered when we lost the Olympics to Rio because it was a slap at the President, the Republicans will reject this too. They are more interested in hurting this Democratic President than helping America. And they will purposely hurt his country if hurting Obama is the bi-product.
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The Michael Vick Project: Dog Killer Gets Reality Show
These days, if a public figure wants to set the record straight (a.k.a. redeem themselves for dirty deeds done), they simply grab a camera, gather a little network interest, and boom: reality TV saves the day. At least that’s the formula Michael Vick is hoping will work as he launches a new show. But is America ready to throw him a bone and forget that the NFL player also holds the title of convicted dog killer?
The Nation
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A Makeshift World
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Afghanistan in Crisis
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The Women of AfghanistanAnn Jones Women belong at the center of the debate over the war, not on the margins.
- John Mueller: 'Safe Haven' Myth
- Selig S. Harrison: The Ethnic Split
- Priya Satia: Attack of the Drones
- Manan Ahmed: Pakistan Paranoia
- Editors: Obama's Fateful Choice
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The Cost of WarStephen M. Walt Staying in Afghanistan will cost many more American soldiers' lives and hundreds of billions of dollars. Is it worth it?
- John Mueller: 'Safe Haven' Myth
- Selig S. Harrison: The Ethnic Split
- Priya Satia: Attack of the Drones
- Manan Ahmed: Pakistan Paranoia
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How to Get OutRobert Dreyfuss Elements of a responsible withdrawal from the war in Afghanistan.
- John Mueller: 'Safe Haven' Myth
- Selig S. Harrison: The Ethnic Split
- Priya Satia: Attack of the Drones
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Zooming In on the Year's Biggest Hoax
Digg - 2008 US Elections
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Obama Declares Swine Flu a National Emergency - NYTimes.comHealth officials said almost 100 children have died from the flu, known as H1N1, and 46 states now have widespread flu activity.
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Singing Flashmob Crashes AHIP Conference [MUST SEE VIDEO]AHIP is the powerful insurance lobby that spends 5 million dollars a week trying to kill health care reform. Billionaires for Wealthcare is a grassroots network looking to stop them - with song.
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1 in 5 Domestic Violence Orders Not ServedOne in five orders of protection secured by victims of domestic violence in Illinois have not been served on the abuser, according to state records, prompting calls for reforms by victims' advocates and the state's attorney general.
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Franken Cuts Through Health Care Opponent Like Butter (vid)I'm not gonna lie, as much as I love Alan Grayson (a man who's name I forgot, then remembered again once I Googled Democrat with balls), Franken just earned a lot of brownie points.
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McCain introduces bill to block Net neutralitySen. John McCain (R-AZ) introduced a bill in the Senate on Thursday that would effectively allow Internet service providers to slow down or block Internet content or applications of their choosing.
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Franken's Anti-Rape Amendment May Be Stripped By InouyeAn amendment that would prevent the gov. from working with contractors who denied victims of assault the right to bring their case to court is in danger of being watered down or stripped entirely from a larger defense appropriations bill. Multiple sources have told the HuffPo that Sen. Inouye, D=HI, is is considering removing or altering the prov..
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TARP figure confirms substantial pay cuts loomingTARP's Warren defends reported plans to slash executive salaries, calls pay excessive
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The lucrative business of Obama-bashingPlaying into Fox's hatefest is certainly stuffing Rupert Murdoch's pockets. But what could the White House's strategic objective be in dignifying their rantings with multiple responses?
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Alleged 'race attack' victim Megan Williams admits she liedA troubled young woman whom the Rev. Al Sharpton championed as a victim of a horrific, racially motivated sexual assault now says she fabricated the incident -- despite the fact that all of her
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Backfire! NC GOP-er Delivers Anti-Republican Survey CommentsWhen North Carolina state senator Phil Berger (R) trucked a wheelbarrow stacked with Republican surveys into the governor's office, he thought he was delivering a neat blow to Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue. Hilarity then ensues.
Daily Kos
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Where Did All The Republicans Go?
Republicans, to be sure, seem to have an endless reservoir of outrage these days. Among the latest smallish things to get the right wing's underpants into a collective twist was a poll released several days ago by ABC and the Washington Post.
There was much within the poll for the GOP to be concerned about. It had the "generic ballot test" for next year's midterm election at a twelve-point Democratic edge (generally speaking, an even wider edge than was found in October surveys back in 2008). It showed a striking level of support for the Public Option. On top of it all, it gave the president a 57% job approval rating.
Yet these were all ancillary complaints for the conservative fringe. Their largest concern: the poll showed that just 20% of those surveyed self-identified as Republicans. Democrats made up 33% of the sample, while Independents made up the largest group in the sample at 42%.
This led Newt Gingrich, joined by a chorus of voices in the right-wing blogosphere, to get positively indignant:
Well, it tells me first of all that the poll's almost certainly wrong. It's fundamentally different from Rasmussen. It's fundamentally different from Zogby. It's fundamentally different from Gallup. It's a typical Washington Post effort to slant the world in favor of liberal Democrats.
It is perhaps not surprising that a right-wing ideologue like Gingrich would push GOP-friendly Rasmussen as some kind of an exemplar. And, as Pollster's Mark Blumenthal pointed out in his own fine article on this kerfluffle, Zogby does not disclose its party ID breakdown publicly.
But Gallup did, and as ABC News' polling unit director Gary Langer pointed out in his excellent takedown of Gingrich, it isn't all that different than what ABC News showed. Nor did a large number of other pollsters:
Partisan Breakdown, Political Public Opinion Polls, R/D/I
ABC/WaPo (10/18)--20/33/42 CBS News (10/8)--22/33/45 AP/GfK (10/5)--21/33/26 Ipsos/McClatchy (10/5)--19/33/48 Gallup (10/4)--27/33/38 Pew (10/4)--23/34/37 NBC/WSJ (9/20)--18/31/43
Unless Gingrich is prepared to indict pretty much every pollster in America save for Rasmussen and Fox News, it would appear that he is seriously out of line alleging that Langer and his crew cooked the books.
Especially when other theories are infinitely more plausible. After all, what we are talking about is political self-identification. In other words, the pollster asks the respondent to identify their own affiliation.
There are no shortage of polls that tell us that voters are not particularly thrilled with either political party (our most recent tracking poll here at DK proves that conclusively). It is also not hard to find data that the GOP brand name is damaged considerably worse than the Democratic party brand: consider this week's CNN Poll (PDF), where approval of the Republican Party was at 36%, the lowest level for the GOP in a CNN-sponsored poll since the impeachment saga of late 1998.
Given this fact, it is not terribly surprising to learn that voters might not want to identify themselves as Republican to a pollster. Indeed, someone with conservative leanings might be as apt to identify themselves as an Independent as a Republican, given the current base disenchantment with the party. After all, does the name Doug Hoffman ring a bell? Base dissatisfaction is certainly going to lead to an exodus of some kind. We have even seen that phenomenon among Democrats this year, although not as acutely. Last year's polls showed Democratic indentification routinely in the high 30s and low 40s. That table cited by Langer had tremendous consistency, with Democrats in the 31-34% range.
One must also consider the possibility that the relative paucity of people self-identifying as Republicans could be traced to their relegation to the minority party over the last four years. There's a reason why it is not hard to find people sporting Lakers and Celtics gear but not too many folks rocking the Memphis Grizzlies attire. People usually do not fall all over themselves to identify with a loser, and the GOP has been on a pretty brutal losing streak as of late.
So, in the final analysis, it appears that Gingrich and the rest of the right-wing scolds have, to some extent, a raging case of misplaced anger. Their anger at ABC's polling unit is a deflection of the real problem: genuine anger many Republicans are directing at their own party--an extension of the GOP civil war which is apparent to anybody closely following American politics but curiously underreported by the traditional media, ever eager to instead breathlessly report on the Obama polling collapse that has been more of a retraction of a bounce than a genuine collapse.
Quibbles about Republicans in the sample are rather besides the point, anyway. As long as the newly minted Independents vote Republican in the 2010 midterms, then how they choose to identify themselves to a pollster is largely irrelevant.
One thing that has been a pretty consistent characteristic of polls in the Obama presidency is that Independents are not behaving the same as they did in 2006 or 2008. In those two election cycles, Independents almost behaved as soft Democrats, leaning much closer to the Democrats on issue and electoral polling than they did the GOP. In 2009, that has not been the case. In the best case scenario, they've broken even. In some cases, they leaned just slightly to the right-of-center.
This almost certainly means that the drop in Republican identification is not so much an ideological shift as it is a shift in nomenclature. In other words, as the number of people self-identifying as Republican has dropped, the number of right-leaning Independents has increased (and presumably, close to proportionally).
Therefore, one can presume that unless there is a real spike in third-party candidacies (call it the Daggett effect, or perhaps the Hoffman effect), those Independents will either stay home (which could have a real and deleterious effect for Republicans) or they will revert to form.
The team over at Public Policy Polling looked at the potential for third-party candidates in 2010, and gauged their potential support. In a shrewd decision, they polled a standard Dem vs. GOP generic ballot for 2010, and then they also included a generic ballot with a third option. In the standard two-way calculation, the Democratic Party led by eight points (48-40). With the third option included, 22% of voters selected that third-option, with the Democratic lead stretching out to double digits (40-29-22).
In a sign that the new surge in Independents may well be right of center--consider this demographic breakdown: 29% of conservative voters would opt for that third-party option in 2010 if it were available, versus just 9% of liberals.
The bottom line is that the sampling data for the ABC poll last week is important, but far from the reason that Gingrich and the right-wing chorus alleges.
This is not an object lesson in a liberal media trying to bring down the GOP. It is, however, further evidence that the Republican brand name is badly wounded, and that there is a real and deep schism in the modern-day GOP.
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Midday Open Thread
- Jane Hall, associate professor in the School of Communication at American University and former Fox News Contributor, said Glenn Beck's over-the-top language was a factor in her decision to leave the network.
- Two powerful car bombs went off in Baghdad today. At least 136 were killed in what is being described as the deadliest attack in Iraq this year.
- On the campaign trail last year, Palin touted a plan to build a massive natural gas pipeline in Alaska. Now experts and Alaskan officials are skeptical it will ever be built under the terms laid out by the former Palin administration.
- A female Saudi journalist was sentenced to 60 lashes after the network she works for aired an interview with a man discussing his premarital sex life. Her crime? The network was not properly licensed in Saudi Arabia.
- Senator Feingold reiterated his support for a public option and pushed back on the idea of a "trigger" plan.
- White House officials say reports of WH spokesman Robert Gibbs apologizing to Faux News are not true.
- Helen Thomas offers advice for President Obama.
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Liveblog with Max Blumenthal, Author of "Republican Gomorrah"
Republican Gomorrah: Inside the Movement that Shattered the Party By Max Blumenthal Hardcover: 416 pages, $25 Nation Books: New York September 2009
This isn't a book for the faint of heart. The deep underbelly of the Republican right is far weirder, and far more disturbing, than most observers recognize. The corruption, the sex scandals, the lust for power--it's all here, presented in a fast-moving romp that's part sociology, part psychology, part gossip column.
But that's gossip in a good way. It's well-documented gossip, not just rumors, and the personal and political stories behind the personalities that fill these pages is critical to the web that Blumenthal constructs, showing the ties that you didn't know existed from notorious serial killer Ted Bundy who James Dobson used to amass part of his forture, to Gary Bauer to Blackwater's Erik Prince to Ralph Reed to Jack Abramoff to Tom Delay to Tony Perkins to David Duke to Tom Coburn to Bill Kristol to Sarah Palin. They're all there, and the story of how all these players have become connected with an extreme and pathological "religious" philosophy to take over the Republican party is fascinating.
Blumenthal explains where the current Republican Party came from, who it's foundational thinkers were, and just why it's still so dangerous. While the conventional wisdom is that the Southern Baptists are at the core of the religious right movement, Blumenthal shows that the movement actually grew out of the works of R.J. Rushdoony, the son of survivors of the Armenian genocide, who devoted his life to nothing less than replacing America's constitutional democracy with a theocracy based on Leviticus case law.
Calling for the literal application of all 613 laws described in the Book of Leviticus, Rushdoony paid special attention to punishments. Instead of serving prison sentences, criminals would be sentenced to indentured servitude, whipped, sold into slavery, or executed."God's government prevails," Rushdoony wrote, "and His alternatives are clear-cut: either men and nations obey His laws, or God invokes the death penalty against them." Those eligible on Rushdooney's long list for execution included disobedient children, unchaste women, apostates, blasphemers, practitioners of witchcraft, astrologers, adulterers, and of course, anyone who engaged in "sodomy or homosexuality."
Burning at the stake, death by "the sword," and hanging were some of Rushdoony's preferred modes of execution. However, his son-in-law Gary North, a self-styled Reconstructionist economist (who eventually fell out wiht his father-in-law) and former adviser to Republican Representative Ron Paul of Texas . . . advocated stoning evildoers to death. Rocks, North argued, are free and plentiful, making them ideal tools for the financially savvy executioner. (pp. 20-11)
Rushdoony's writings influenced people like Bush's faith-based initiatives czar Marvin Olasky and Howard F. Ahmanson Jr., whose vast wealth funded Rushdoony's think tank, as well as a number of intelligent design initiatives and California’s anti-gay Prop 8 initiative. Rushdoony also heavily influenced Francis Schaeffer, a 1960s icon of the Jesus Freak movement who became radicalized with the Roe v. Wade decision and essentially created the violent anti-abortion movement, out of which grew the larger political effort around "values voters," attacking all of the secular underpinnings of America. The rest, essentially, is the political history of the Republican Party for the last 40 years.
Then there's the sex. It might seem that the slightly icky things we've learned about the private lives of everyone from John Ensign to David Vitter to Mark Foley to Ted Haggard are just an entertaining offshoots of the larger movement, but Blumenthal sees more. Drawing from Erich Fromm's Escape from Freedom, about the psychology of Nazism and authoritarianism, and Eric Hoffer's The True Believer, Blumenthal describes the frame of reference for so many of the adherents of this extreme fundamentalist worldview, many of whom were brutalized as children. He desribes it in a discussion with Scott Horton:
Followers of the Christian right openly admit that they have no capacity to restrain themselves from total depravity without constant, stern commandments from an angry God. As Gov. Mark Sanford, an evangelical minister, declared during his recent press conference confessing an extra-marital affair, the "bottom line of God’s law" is to "protect us from ourselves." Senator John Ensign, the only Pentectostal serving in the Senate, attributed his own sexual dalliances to having "walked away from God," or having relied too heavily on his individual will. These figures believe if they don’t do what God supposedly wants them to do they will descend immediately and inevitably into sin and perversion–because that’s what they want to do.
Fromm explained that those who seek to obliterate the self in the drama of an authoritarian crusade have attempted a "neurotic solution" that always leads to self-destructiveness. They use right-wing politics as a form of cheap medication, hoping to cleanse their sullen souls by purging the land of sin. But cheap medication rarely works. Thus none of the recent Republican sex scandals are unique; they are reflective of the sensibility of the movement that took over and shattered the GOP, and which Fromm analyzed so concisely in his 1941 book, Escape From Freedom.
And, by bowing before James Dobson and mouthing the correct words, they find absolution. And, if they aren't gay, political rehabilitation. The cases of David Vitter and Larry Craig are particularly representative of this.
One quibble I've got with Blumenthal--his assertion in the book's title that by allowing itself to be subsumed by the religious right, the Republican party has shattered. It hasn't yet, and Blumenthal's own book shows the danger that the nation is still in as long as the American body politic--and opinion makers and political leaders--underestimate the degree to which this mindset has taken over the Republican party. Torture wasn't just the outgrowth of Dick Cheney's personal evil, it was the inevitable result of the "Holy War" the administration was waging.
Without a real understanding or acceptance of the extremism, of the radical and violent nature (which is bubbling up more and more frequently since Sarah Palin unleashed the beast during the 2008 campaign) of what is now the Republican base, we carry on as if the Republican party was operating as the counterpoint to the Democratic party, as if it were somehow still the "loyal opposition," and not fundamentally committed to the radical overthrow of secular America. Bargaining with the Republicans in Congress as if they were partners in governing America is a very bad bet.
I've saved some of the more fun stuff, particularly Max's great expose work from Alaska on Sarah Palin, for him to talk about. Join us in the comments.
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The Fox Nutwork's coy game
Still puzzled about the difference between the Fox Nutwork and actual news organizations?
I guess some folks weren't convinced by the fact that Fox apparently feels free to simply change basic facts when they're inconvenient and standing them on their head would be more politically advantageous. Specifically, I refer here to the Fox habit of "accidentally" labeling every politician who gets indicted, arrested or defeated as a Democrat.
But Fox's "colleagues" among the actual news media still harbor some doubts, it seems. And if you're in the real news business, that's perhaps understandable. You worry about the differences, because unless they're very clear, you think maybe you might be subject to a call-out sometime in the future, too, right?
Though the White House tried to clarify it position when questioned this week, the difference between Fox and real news networks is something best illustrated by showing you their game. And that's just what Media Matters did:
Here's the Fox Nutwork playbook in all its glory.
When attempting to defend itself, Fox insists that the most egregious examples of bias pointed to by its attackers are from its "opinion journalists" (which they are), who are an operation separate from its "news" division (which they most decidedly are not).
In fact, Fox is designed and built to exploit the traditional expectation of such divides at the other networks, but instead regularly uses its opinion shows as a vector to whitewash their bullshit for the "news" side, turning even of the most outlandish and idiotic ultra-right talking points into something that wears the disguise of news. In the evening hour opinion shows (which, poisonous though they are, Fox is perfectly entitled to broadcast), you have your Hannity types spouting their wingnut applause lines unchecked, because gosh, it's just "opinion journalism." So it's all fair game when they come right out and claim Obama's a socialist, or communist, or fascist, or whatever the flavor of the day is.
But lo and behold, come next morning, the "news" side anchors pull out the infamous "Fox Question Mark" construction, dutifully delivering their line to the audience: "Is Obama a socialist? That's what some in Washington are saying..." Nevermind that both the "some" who are saying it and the talking heads "reporting" it take their morning memos and their paychecks from the same source.
The previous evening's attack memes, Fox folks will tell you, are supposedly this morning's "news," because, well, people are saying it, and they as "journalists" have a responsibility to cover that. And in their view of it nobody's culpable, because Hannity's a commentator, and the "news" division is just noting that "some" are saying it. Clean hands all around!
In reality, of course, it simply cannot be considered fair game to plant memes with the opinion side so that the "news" side can claim, "Hey, it's out there and we have a responsibility to report it" the next day.
And that, if you ask me, is one of the key difference between the Fox Nutwork and everybody else.
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Cops and Robbers
Back in my single days, I worked out. A lot. But now happily enjoined in domestic bliss, I’m getting fatter every year. So my friend Pam and I made a bet in July. For every pound I lose between now and the end of the year, she’ll pay me ten bucks. But for every pound I gain in the same period I’ll pay her. We drew the bet up in a nice legal looking piece of paper, a contract each of us holds, and either one of us can sell our respective end of the bet to someone else, provided of course we find someone interested. Now it’s October, and I’ve lost over 10 pounds. Whose end of the bet is worth more?
I’d say mine! Sure, the holidays lay ahead. And my loss is theoretically unlimited; I could hypothetically gain an infinite number of pounds. But for now I’m 'in the money' by ten pounds or a 100 bucks.
The value of the bet is derived from my current weight in relation to my initial weight and the amount of time remaining. It's a derivative of those constantly changing numbers. Now, replace, my weight on any given day with the fluctuating price of a stock, my initial weight with the initial stock strike price, the end of the year with the exercise date, and that bet is an imperfect but fairly decent analogy to a type of derivative called a stock option.
In a wider context, a derivative is simply a bet where the value at any given time is in part derived from the price of an underlying item, like a stock, bond, currency exchange rate, even a bushel of wheat or a mortgage. You can bet on it going up, down, or staying the same. There’s usually a time limit of some kind and the bets can be placed through a broker-dealer by anyone interested in getting a piece of the action. They can be pure Vegas style speculation, or used as a hedge: if I own a stock at a huge profit and want to wait and sell it next year for tax reasons, it would be prudent to bet that it will go down between now and then as a form of insurance.
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Your Abbreviated Pundit Round-up
Sunday's child is full of grace, and Sunday punditry is sometimes the same (and sometimes not.)
As "balloon boy" played out, the White House opened fire on one purveyor of fictional news, Fox News, where "tea party" protests are inflated into a national rebellion rivaling the Civil War and where Glenn Beck routinely claims Obama is perpetrating a conspiracy to bring fascism to America. But the White House’s argument is diluted by the different, if less malevolently partisan, fictions that turn up on Fox’s competitors. On CNN, for instance, Lou Dobbs provided a platform for the nuts questioning Obama’s citizenship. When an ABC News correspondent insisted that Fox was "one of our sister organizations" in an exchange with the president’s press secretary, Robert Gibbs, last week, he wasn’t joking.
A national survey by Public Policy Polling found that 48% of Republicans (and 26% of Americans generally) endorsed the unsupported smear that President Obama doesn't love America (27% of Republicans said Obama does love America and 25% were not sure). Those numbers are even worse than the myth that Obama wasn't born in this country, which was endorsed by 42% of Republicans (and 23% of Americans generally) in a September PPP poll.
A follow-up comment by Nyhan covers the Fox poll on a similar topic, not quite as bad, which asked "How much do you think Barack Obama loves America?". Why are you even asking the question? How patriotic do you think he is? How much does he love his kids? And when do you think he stopped beating his wife? Sheesh.
Thomas Friedman: I'm still giving advice about Iraq. Anyone interested? Hey, we can still win. Is this microphone on?
The Vatican is now conducting two inquisitions into the "quality of life" of American nuns, a dwindling group with an average age of about 70, hoping to herd them back into their old-fashioned habits and convents and curb any speck of modernity or independence.
In 1988, under the direction of then-Cardinal Ratzinger, the Vatican had already created a special provision to allow the schismatic group (called Lefebvrists after their late leader, rebel Archbishop Marcel Lefebvre) to continue to use the old Latin Mass and other pre-Vatican II rites if they would stay connected to Rome in some fashion.
But Ratzinger has always wanted to do more to bring the remaining schismatics back into the fold, and as pope he has made extraordinary concessions to achieve that end. The principal innovation was his personal order, in 2007, to allow the old Latin Mass to be celebrated anywhere in the world, whether the local bishop likes it or not. That created, for the first time in Catholic history, two parallel rites in the Western church -- one in Latin, the Tridentine rite (after the Council of Trent); another in a newer form, which is almost always celebrated in the vernacular, or local language.
Now, with the new provision for Anglicans, there could be three versions of the Roman Catholic Mass for different constituencies. As Reese says, "Once we have three versions, it is more difficult to argue against more."
see also gchaucer2's rec diary on the Dowd and Gibson columns.
For nearly two hours, [James Arthur] Ray sat at the only exit of the small lodge, encouraging the group to "go full-on" and "push past your self-imposed and conditioned borders." [Three people died, more than a dozen were injured.]...
But Joseph Bruchac, author of "The Native American Sweat Lodge," said that when run properly, a sweat lodge is a purification ritual, not a physical endurance test. He has received dozens of e-mails from Native American elders expressing how upset -- but unsurprised -- they were at the Sedona tragedy. "This is the stealing of the traditional, spiritual ways," Bruchac said, "and to me, that's a very sad thing, but it's been going on for years."
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I will be posting an interview with Bruce Gellin from the National Vaccine Program Office (HHS) this evening around 10 pm ET.
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Sunday Talk - You're a Mean One, Mr. Obama
In the face of mounting evidence that President Obama will be a one-termer – most likely losing reelection to Roger Ailes – the White House went all War on Christmas against Fox News Channel this week.It was very Nixonian.
Not even Karl Rove is this evil.
Can't we all be friends?
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Open Thread and Diary Rescue
This evening's Rescue Rangers are mtperson, srkp23, noddem, blank frank, shayera, and sunspark says, with watercarrier4diogenes as the editorial functionary.
The rescued diaries are:
- As the Cameron Todd Willingham death-penalty controversy heats up, soothsayer99 recalls a similar case in Another Wrongful Execution in Texas: Remembering Shaka Sankofa aka Gary Lee Graham. (blank frank)
- Cassiodorus has some interesting thoughts on The McKibben-Hedges "Debate" -- a thought. (shayera)
- "Finian's Rainbow" is returning to Broadway, and Deoliver47 has some insights on the racial politics of the segregation-era classic in "Look to the Rainbow", the return of Finian. (blank frank)
- Using history as warp and satire as woof, CatM weaves a tale that explains Why Teabaggers Are Like the Jews (part snark). (mtperson)
- bondibox writes a letter to Dear Republican FB Friend ... (shayera)
- So, I'm Not Sure If I Understand This, but let me explain anyway says xaxnar, who then builds a compelling case for steeply progressive taxes on the malefactors of great wealth. (mtperson)
- fake consultant examines the narrow, narrow distinction between music and torture in a diary that reminds me of my mother screaming "turn down that noise" as I played the Beatles, On Being A Government DJ, Or, "Torture? You Call That Torture?" (sunspark says)
jotter has High Impact Diaries: October 23, 2009 while carolita has Top Commentas 10-24-09 -- 350 Edition.
Enjoy and please promote your own favorite diaries in this open thread (even if you're the author! Here's where that's actually appreciated). And, of course, since it's an open thread, PLAY NICE, OK? 8^)
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Mac vs. PC meets Dems vs. GOP
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Where Our Money Goes
AP is at it again, with an article that says the House healthcare bill is way too expensive, and that "some moderate Democrats" might just not be able to bring themselves to spend that much. Oddly, author David Espo acknowledges both the favorable CBO report and the deficit reduction in the House bill, but still frames the story as healthcare reform breaking the bank.
WASHINGTON — Health care legislation taking shape in the House carries a price tag of at least $1 trillion over a decade, significantly higher than the target President Barack Obama has set, congressional officials said Friday as they struggled to finish work on the measure for a vote early next month.
Democrats have touted an unreleased Congressional Budget Office estimate of $871 billion in recent days, a total that numerous officials acknowledge understates the bill's true cost by $150 billion or more. That figure excludes several items designed to improve benefits for Medicare and Medicaid recipients and providers, as well as public health programs and more, they added.
The officials who disclosed the details did so on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to discuss them publicly.
Some moderate Democrats have expressed reluctance to support a bill as high as $1 trillion. Last month, Obama said in a nationally televised address before a joint session of Congress that he preferred a package with a price tag of around $900 billion.
Obama also said he would not sign a bill that raised deficits, and the CBO estimates the emerging House bill meets that objective. Officials said the measure would reduce deficits by at least $50 billion over 10 years and perhaps as much as $120 billion.
Democrats also said the bill would slow the rate of growth of the giant Medicare program from 6.6 percent annually to 5.3 percent.
"The bill will be paid for over 10 years. It will reduce costs but also will not add a dime to the deficit" in future years, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said at a news conference.
So the next few days is going to be centered around the outrageous costs of providing healthcare. Democratic leaders will have to bend over backwards to explain that they are being as miserly as they could be attempting to fix the "system" that allows tens of thousands of people every year to die from lack of coverage. Justification they and the White House never had to provide, remarkably, when providing funding for the war in Iraq even after it was abundantly clear that the war was baseless and being conducted in the most incompetent manner.
Conveniently, Fred Hiatt decided to to take on the subject by answering a reader's challenge as to why the WaPo editors loved the idea of spending more and more money in Afghanistan, going into further debt for war, but insisted that providing universal health coverage had to be deficit neutral.
Glenn encapsulates the core of their response best:
The Post attempts to justify that disparity with their second answer, which perfectly captures the prevailing, and deeply warped, Beltway thinking: namely, escalating in Afghanistan is an absolute national necessity, while providing Americans with health care coverage is just a luxury that can wait:
All this assumes that defense and health care should be treated equally in the national budget. We would argue that they should not be . . . Universal health care, however desirable, is not "fundamental to the defense of our people." Nor is it a "necessity" that it be adopted this year: Mr. Obama chose to propose a massive new entitlement at a time of historic budget deficits. In contrast, Gen. McChrystal believes that if reinforcements are not sent to Afghanistan in the next year, the war may be lost, with catastrophic consequences for U.S. interests in South Asia. U.S. soldiers would continue to die, without the prospect of defeating the Taliban. And, as Mr. Obama put it, "if left unchecked, the Taliban insurgency will mean an even larger safe haven from which al-Qaeda would plot to kill more Americans."
Actually, a recent study from the Harvard Medical School and Cambridge Health Alliance documented that "nearly 45,000 annual deaths are associated with lack of health insurance" in America. Whatever the exact number, nobody doubts that lack of health insurance causes thousands of Americans to die every year. If you're Fred Hiatt and you already have health insurance, it's easy to dismiss those deaths as unimportant, "not fundamental," not a "necessity" to tend to any time soon. No matter your views on Obama's health care reform plan, does it really take any effort to see how warped that dismissive mentality is?
But it becomes so much worse when one considers what we're ostensibly going to do in Afghanistan as part of our venerated "counter-insurgency" mission.....
So according to The Washington Post, dropping bombs on, controlling and occupying Afghanistan -- all while simultaneously ensuring "effective governance, economic development, education, the elimination of corruption, the protection of women's rights" to Afghan citizens in Afghanistan -- is an absolutely vital necessity that must be done no matter the cost. But providing basic services (such as health care) to American citizens, in the U.S., is a secondary priority at best, something totally unnecessary that should wait for a few years or a couple decades until we can afford it and until our various wars are finished, if that ever happens. "U.S. interests in South Asia" are paramount; U.S. interests in the welfare of those in American cities, suburbs and rural areas are an afterthought.
It's not just the Washington Post editorial board and the Village. What about all those "moderate" Democrats who are so afraid of being labeled big spenders for actually doing something so critically needed by their constituents, by the whole nation? When it's our tax dollars in the first place!?! Which of those Blue Dogs, those ConservaDems, ever raised their voice in opposition to pouring billions and billions of dollars into the sinkhole of war? Where were, where are, they and their penny-pinching ways on all of the waste fraud and abuse in KBR and Halliburton and Blackwater, the contractors who's actions in many instances actually endangered the lives of American troops?
It's an old fight, guns vs. butter. The fear of being perceived as "weak" on national security and "tax and spend liberals" is so ingrained in the elected Democrat's psyche that many of them probably don't even realize the trade-off they are making. But that doesn't mean it doesn't still stink to holy hell when Democrats, Democrats reject spending an extra few billion dollars to save untold American lives here at home.
Five Thirty Eight
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Despite Claims, Anti-Gay Group in Maine More Dependant on Out-of-State FundsIn a fundraising plea to his mailing list this past week, Marc Multy, the President of the anti-gay marriage Group Stand for Marriage Maine, described his opponents as having "amassed a war chest from the homosexual political elite from nearly every corner of the country to impose their will on Mainers like us."Indeed, the pro-gay marriage group No on 1 Protect Maine Equality has raised more than $2.30 million in itemized contributions from outside the state of Maine; this is more than the $1.82 million that Stand for Marriage Maine has raised from out-of-state.However, most of No on 1's advantage is based on its substantial edge in fundraising from within the state of Maine. No on 1 has raised $1.89 million from 3,766 unique contributors within the state, whereas Stand for Marriage Maine has raised just $677,000 from 422 contributors, putting it at nearly a 3:1 disadvantage. All told, No on 1 has raised 43 percent of its funds from within Maine, as compared with 26 percent for the Yes on 1 campaign.
Additional detail on fundraising by the two groups, as gathered from the State of Maine's Campaign Finance Website, is below.
You will probably notice the large disparity in the average size of the contribution that each group has received: $3,862 for the anti-gay marriage group, versus $419 for No on 1. This is because Stand for Marriage Maine is exceptionally dependent on just two large donors: the New Jersey-based National Organization for Marriage, from which it has received $1,622,152, and the Roman Catholic Diocese of Portland (ME), from which it has received $529,666. Collectively, these two group's represent 83 percent of Yes on 1's fundraising. In addition, the Roman Catholic Diocese of Portland accounts for 81 percent of its in-state fundraising; without its contributions, Stand for Marriage Maine would have received just $127,218 in contributions from Mainers.Protect Maine Equality, to be sure, has also benefited from someheavyweight donors, earning $526,000 from Maine-based businessman Donald Sussman, and $267,589 from the Human Rights Campaign. And indeed, if you cull its donor list, you'll find a few big-name Hollywood celebrities: it's gotten $2,000, for instance, from Rob Reiner, $5,000 from David Geffen, and $10,000 from former U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg James Hormel.Overall, however, its top 10 donors represent just 36 percent of its total fundraising haul, as compared to 91 percent for Yes on 1. Most of its contributions, rather, come from small donors, who account for its 9-to-1 advantage in the number of unique, itemized contributors within Maine, and its 28-to-1 advantage in its number of unique donors from outside the state.Although it is always risky to generalize from a single example -- particularly given that the Yes on 1 campaign has been fairly inept -- it would seem that the grassroots energy on this issue has reversed, with the pro-gay marriage side feeling more emboldened than the traditional marriage groups. This is true both outside the state of Maine and within it. -
60 v. 61?There's a lot of confusing goings-on in PublicOptionLand today, which I'm not particularly going to try to unpack -- check out Ezra Klein for the most coherent attempt to summarize the situation. But one narrative I'm seeing pretty commonly is that the White House is willing to make too many sacrifices -- for instance, giving up on an opt-out public option in exchange for a trigger -- in order to secure Olympia Snowe's vote and be able to call the health care bill "bipartisan".I don't doubt that the White House perceives real political value in having a health care bill that has at least one Republican on board. Whether the trade-offs they're willing to make are "worth it" or not, I don't know. Nor do I doubt that, from the very beginnings of the process, the policy wing of the White House has been somewhat neutered on the public option (to put it generously).But I don't think this is the crux of the issue -- I don't think the White House's position is primarily dictated by a desire for 61 votes on a motion to proceed with the health care bill as opposed to exactly 60. Rather, I suspect they don't perceive exactly 60 votes -- meaning, something strictly along party lines -- as being in the cards.From a policy standpoint, Olympia Snowe is arguably to the left of at least two or three Democratic senators -- Evan Bayh, Ben Nelson, Mary Landireu -- on health care. From a politics standpoint, she probably has more to lose than a Nelson or a Landrieu by opposing the bill, since health care reform is more popular in her state than in Nebraska or Louisiana.Now, a motion to proceed is not a policy vote -- it's a procedural one. And there's certainly a case that Snowe, being a Republican, is intrinsically less easy to whip than a Nelson or a Bayh or a Landrieu on a process issue.Nevertheless, all of this isn't happening in isolation. Snowe is meeting with Nelson and Bayh and Landrieu and Max Baucus. That group of a half-dozen or so Senators -- maybe throw Susan Collins, Joe Lieberman, Blanche Lincoln in here too -- is liable to vote as a block. It's probably not a completely impenetrable block -- Politico is breathlessly reporting that Landrieu and Lieberman, for instance, may have been won over -- but it seems like an uphill climb for Harry Reid to pick off all other members of the block but not Olympia Snowe. Bayh and Nelson, in particular, appear to be problems. By the way, it may be significant that both Bayh and Nelson are the potential holdouts. If Reid can get down to the point where there's exactly one Democratic opposing the bill, that Democrat will be under a tremendous amount of pressure since he can no longer deflect responsibility.This is not to say that Reid should stop trying to whip votes. The situation is obviously very fluid, and given the reliance on anonymous sourcing in virtually all of the reporting on the issue, there's a lot that we don't know.I'm just saying, however, that to castigate the White House for being willing to indefensible sacrifices to the altar of bipartianship is premature. They may not be worried about 61 versus 60 so much as 61 versus 58.
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The Public Option Playing Field, in Two DimensionsYou should definitely go and read Ezra Klein's handy guide to the various public option compromises that are working their way through the Senate. One thing to bear in mind however is that the public option compromises are really being discussed along two dimensions.One dimension concerns implementation: when and how does the public option come into being? Does the public option come online right away ("right away" in this instance meaning 2013)? Will it come online immediately, but states are allowed the right to opt out of it? Alternatively, might states have to affirmatively opt into the public option? Or might the public option be implemented only by a trigger?The other dimension concerns the public option's operation. Will it operate as a federal program charging Medicare (or Medicare +5%) rates? As a federal program that must negotiate its rates in the market? As programs run by state governments? Or as non-profit co-ops, operated on a state-by-state basis, but not run by state governments themselves?If you drew a grid of these issues in two dimensions, then almost every box would be filled by some or another version of the "public option". Actually, let's go ahead and do that...
The yellow triangle represents the sort of "Zone of Compromise". I'm pretty sure that a co-ops provision, with immediate implementation, could pass the Senate (or at least not be filibustered by it). Likewise with Olympia Snowe's trigger. A strong-ish opt-in amendment proposed by Maria Cantwell was approved by the Senate Finance Committee along party lines, but did not get Snowe's vote; it might or might not pass the full Senate.Basically, any square that is overlapped by the triangle seems like a plausible outcome. The most robust public option available is probably a federally-run program that states would have the right to opt out of and which would have to negotiate its rates in the market. The worst-case scenario is probably state level programs with an extremely stingy trigger, as proposed by Snowe. (This is assuming, of course, that health care reform as a whole will pass, which people may be a little bit too sanguine about.)This is not a perfect representation of the alternatives by any means. Co-ops and government-run programs are not necessarily mutually exclusive. A "loose" trigger could conceivably be more robust than an opt-in provision, or even an opt-out provision, although in practice Snowe's proposal is not. Moreover, state-level options and triggers could be combined in various ways: maybe states have to opt in initially, but they'd be enrolled automatically if a trigger kicks in. An final complication is is that certain of the options -- for instance, a state-run opt-out -- do not make particularly much sense. Still, it should provide a reasonably useful schematic. -
Picking on Cliff ClavinA few weeks ago I wrote my Baltimore Sun column about conservatives' attacks on the Post Office as an example of government ineffectiveness and inefficiency. The USPS is, after all, losing money right now--burdened as they are by hefty labor costs and massive pension obligations. But industries that rely upon the postal service to deliver their goods and solicitations are not complaining. In fact, as I noted, many are strong advocates of maintaining the USPS:According to the USPS' 2008 annual report, of the 201.9 billion pieces of mail delivered, only about 10 percent originate from households. The other 90 percent comes from businesses, agencies and other nonhouseholds. And although the private letters, bills and magazines we receive at home comprise 40 percent of our mail, the other 60 percent is advertising: credit card applications, coupons and other forms of junk mail.Which means that the post office is an even more important boondoggle for the companies flooding our mailboxes with solicitations. The trade groups know the score: The magazine publishers support USPS solvency, and the direct mail industry says it will gladly accept five-day mail delivery if necessary. And in 2006, a Republican Congress and Republican president passed a law mandating that the USPS set aside billions to cover its long-term pension obligations.Big business and the GOP are not trying to starve this federal beast.I went on to suggest that privatizing mail delivery would lead to far more expensive shipping costs. The idea that a private company would both deliver mail to every office and home six days a week, and collect it from the same plus thousands of drop boxes scattered across the nation-- all the while maintaining walk-up offices in every town--and still be able to deliver a first-class envelope to any address for a mere 44 cents (an amount that hasn't changed in real terms after 30 years) is simply an absurd expectation. And, while that means taxpayer dollars now subsidize the mail, again, a lot of the redistribution is going from taxpayers' pockets to corporate balance sheets.Anyway, I got a lot of nice emails from postal carriers, both active and retired, about the column. (They must have some network for circulating such stuff, because the emails came from many corners of America.) But a late straggler of an email that just arrived two days ago from a man whose identity I will not disclose--other than to report that he's from southeast Oklahoma--really surprised me. Here's the key excerpt:Pres. Obama made the comment that UPS and FedEx are doing fine. [See video clip, above.] What I'm writing to you about is that in the very rural areas both UPS and FedEx take packages to the local post office and pay the Postmaster to have the rural carriers deliver their packages, neither UPS or FedEx want to take their trucks down the rough back roads to be shaken apart. I am a retired Postal employee, I was the [title redacted] in southeast Oklahoma where I serviced 125 post offices. Nearly every time I was in a rural post office FedEx or UPS would show up, bring a load of packages to be delivered and pay the postage to have them delivered. I asked a few Pm's [postmasters] about it, they each explained that it was cheaper for them to pay the Postal Service to deliver the packages than to have to drive their trucks sometimes miles into very remote areas. I just never hear the USPS officials even mention this when being compared to the other delivery services. I don't think Oklahoma is the only state where this happens. (emphasis added)So there you have it. If the private carriers could afford to deliver everywhere for one flat rate and still turn a profit, they'd be doing so. But they can't. And that means that, in terms of redistributive nature of the USPS, at least insofar as redistribution occurs from one segment of the American population to another, some portion of that redistribution goes from urban and suburban areas to rural areas. Maybe rural voters--who tend to vote Republican, and preferred John McCain over Barack Obama last year by eight points--ought to keep that in mind the next time they criticize health care reform by comparing it to Cliff Clavin.And so should the president.
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Comparing the Votes of the Rich and the PoorAs just about everybody knows by now, richer Americans tend to vote Republican while poorer Americans go for the Democrats.But this isn't true for all groups. For an amusing example that we discussed in our book, a survey found that richer journalists were more likely to identify as Democrats (a fact which I'm sure will not surprise Michael Barone). To look at this more thoroughly, Dan Lee and I took the 2000 and 2004 Annenberg surveys and looked at a bunch of different categories of people, classified by self-identified political ideology (very conservative to very liberal), religion (Catholic, Protestant, etc.), church attendance, age, ethnicity, sex, marital status, urban/suburban/rural, education, and attitude on abortion (just as an example of an opinion question).Dan made this graph which shows the difference in support for the Republican candidate for president, comparing voters in the upper and lower third of income, looking separately at each of a bunch of different slices of the population. At the top of the graph are the people who self-identify as conservative: among this group the rich are about 25% more Republican than the poor. At the bottom are liberals, for whom the rich are slightly more likely to vote for Democrats. Here's everybody:
(Click on any of these graphs to see larger versions.)A striking pattern. The differences between rich and poor are much larger among conservative, Republican groups than among liberal, Democratic groups. At the very bottom of the graph above, you see a few groups where richer people are more likely to vote Democratic. All of these are groups that are mostly liberal and Democratic.To look at it another way, we made a graph showing the different subsets, plotting rich-poor voting differences vs. average Republican vote for the group. Separate graphs for 2000 and 2004:
Pretty consistent, I'd say. Now we have to think about what this all means.P.S. In the lower graphs, the x-axis is the Republican-ness of the group (as measured by % favoring the Republican candidate for President, minus % favoring the Democratic candidate for President), compared to the U.S. average. The y-axis is the difference in Republican vote preference, comparing people in each group who are in the top third of U.S. family income, comparing to those in the bottom third. "Rich" and "poor" are defined here based on the national income distribution, not using separate income levels by subgroup. And we're looking at vote preference (from pre-election polls), not actual votes. We're using the Annenberg pre-election surveys, which is what we used for a lot of our analyses in Red State, Blue State. -
The Other Public OptionDon’t have health care? Or a steady job that provides health care? Then you may view the health care reform's public option as a very, very attractive idea. But that public option may not come to pass, so to speak.Of course, some folks can find insurance via another public option: They can join the U.S. armed forces, which people are doing in record numbers lately. Yes, after years of lowering standards in order to reach (and sometimes still miss) recruitment targets, the U.S. government has finally figured out a way to get people to join the military despite two ongoing wars and thus the prospect of possibly serving in harm’s way: Create a national economic crisis unlike anything seen since the Great Depression and at a moment when health care premiums have doubled in the past decade!Some people are doing the Bill Murray/Ivan Reitman thing under extreme duress, it seems. A 39-year-old Wisconsin husband and father of three recently enlisted not despite the fact that his wife just learned she has cancer, but precisely because she has cancer. He has no other way to insure her.The quota-making trend has been happening for some time now, with signals of an upsurge evident last year and earlier this year:Recruiters report that they are seeing older walk-ins as a result of a battered economy. Changes in recruitment rules — the Army, for example, in 2006 raised its enlistment age limit from 35 to 42 — are also behind interest from older candidates.With conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Army brought in more than 80,000 new recruits in 2008, while the Marines filled 38,000 positions.It is a “seller’s market,” according to anecdotal reports from Marine recruiters. Military service is noble. But let’s be clear: It comes with housing, health care and a very generous pension earned after just 20 years of service. And that’s true whether you are on the front line dodging sniper fire and tip-toeing around land mines in Afghanistan every day, or driving a desk at a recruitment center in Albany. Wherever the Wisconsin father ends up, there is something seriously wrong with our system of government when a guy pushing 40 with three kids has to sign up for a four-year enlistment in order to save his wife's life. At that point ours ceases to be a fully volunteer army.The military has already lowered or relaxed the grade scores, moral conduct requirements, health standards and drug/alcohol usage rules in order to make quotas. It's raised the enlistment age and, until recently, used stop-loss policies to keep personnel in service beyond their enlistment commitments. And now, if unwittingly, we have found yet another enticement: The most public of public health options for a citizenry either without a job, health insurance or both.
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Arguments Against Gay Marriage Literally Stop Making SenseYesterday, I was sent an e-mail from the Stand for Marriage Maine campaign, which I signed up for under a secondary e-mail account. The message suggests talking points that opponents of gay marriage might use when calling into local radio stations:
So, paraphrasing somewhat, the arguments that the Yes on 1 campaign seems to be making are as follows:1. The new law won't make gay marriage equal to straight marriage. Instead, it will create a new kind of marriage in which gay people and straight people are equal.2. Although we may not have proven any connection between gay marriage and public education, our opponents haven't disproven the connection, and it's their fault that the subject came up.3. If gay marriage is upheld, then marriage will exist solely to make people happy.These arguments run from the literally incoherent (#1) to the sublimely unpersuasive (#3), with #2 somewhere in between. Yet, they are, apparently, the best arguments that the Yes on 1 folks can muster -- the ones they're using to close out their campaign.The fact is that the overwhelming majority of people who dislike gay marriage do so for one of two reasons: either their religion has a taboo against homosexuality, or they find the practice gross.But "Adam and Eve, Not Adam and Steve" does not make for a good tagline in a "serious" political discussion. And in Maine, for whatever reason (perhaps because it is one of the least religious states in the country), the Yes on 1 campaign has chosen to deemphasize the religious angle. Meanwhile, the primary "substantive" argument that they've made -- that the same-sex marriage law might alter the public schools curriculum -- has been discredited. This is what they have left to work with. -
Scozzafava is a Conservative Republican (by New York State standards)My colleague Boris Shor has performed some analysis (jointly with Nolan McCarty) on the ideological positions of state legislators. The estimates are based on state legislative voting, which might make you wonder how you could possibly compare legislators in one state with those in another. The trick is that some state representatives (for example, Barack Obama) also end up in Congress. There are enough of these overlap cases that you can put legislators from all 50 states on a common scale.Boris and Nolan most recently applied their method to compare Deirdre Scozzofava, a state assemblywoman running on the Republican ticket in special election in New York's 23rd congressoinal district. Boris writes:Scozzafava has been assailed from the right for being far too liberal. For example, the libertarian Wall Street Journal this morning wrote, "Democrats want to portray this race as a familiar moderate-conservative GOP split, but the real issue is why Ms. Scozzafava is a Republican at all. She has voted for so many tax increases that the Democrat is attacking her as a tax raiser. She supported the Obama stimulus, and she favors "card check" to make union organizing easier, or at least she did until a recent flip-flop. . ." The conservative National Review writes: "In spite of its having gone for Obama in 2008, the district's history suggests that it is basically conservative; Ms. Scozzafava is basically not. Boy, is she not. . . ."Actually, though, Boris and Nolan find Scozzafava to be pretty much in the exact center on a national scale:Her ideological "common space" score is 0.02. These scores, similar but far superior to interest group ratings, put state legislators around the country on the same scale with each other, as well as with members of Congress.Being in the center nationally puts Scozzafava to the right in New York:Scozzafava's score puts her in the 58th percentile of her party, which makes her slightly more conservative than the average Republican legislator in Albany, so she's a conservative in her [state] party.Here's Boris's graph showing the estimated positions of Democratic and Republican legislators in all 50 states in the past decade:
The Republican Party appears to be particularly liberal in Massacusetts, Connecticut, Hawaii, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Oregon, Illinois, and Delaware (although not, as has been much remarked, in California). (The gray lines on the graph show the average ideologies ofcongressional Democrats and Republicans in approximately the same time period.) -
The Issue That Could Fracture Both Right and LeftIt's becoming increasingly likely that regulation of the banking and financial sector is liable to be the issue that dominates the first half of 2010. Why? Well in the first place, it's badly needed -- there is fairly broad consensus among economists and regulators that there is still very profound systemic risk in the banking industry.In the second place, it's not clear what else the Obama administration will do on the domestic policy front, once the health care issue gets resolved. Although the unpopularity of the cap-and-trade program is greatly exaggerated -- most polls in fact show it receiving a plurality or narrow majority of support -- the swing districts in 2010 tend to be big carbon emitters. Immigration reform, likewise, is liable to be a less favorable issue for the Democrats in 2010 than it will be in 2012, when we'll have a younger, more diverse electorate in which Hispanics play a larger role as swing voters. EFCA -- the White House's support for which has always been questionable -- almost certainly isn't going anywhere. Movement on gay rights issues is a possibility, but is more dependent on the White House's willpower than its bandwidth. A second omnibus stimulus bill is probably out of the question, although certainly there will be piecemeal efforts -- extended unemployment benefits, greater investments in transportation infrastructure -- that the White House will pursue. Still, for a hard-working White House, that leaves plenty of time on the table for a big-ticket item, and that item will probably be banking reform.What's fascinating about this issue is how unevenly it breaks down along traditional political lines. The roll calls on the TARP bills that the Congress passed last year were among the strangest in the history of the institution, with divisions between leadership and rank-and-file, between service-sector states and manufacturing states, and between swing districts and safe districts -- all of which played a larger role than one's partisan affiliation.From a 30,000-foot view, the debate will be between the Volckerists and the Summersists, with the Volckerists arguing that large financial institutions need to be broken up -- probably through something resembling a modern Glass-Steagall Act -- and the Summersists arguing instead for more extensive regulations.The 'hard', online left will almost certainly take the Volckerist position. In fact, I expect this to be the "public option" of 2010, the badge of pride that "movement progressives" will use to distinguish themselves from "kleptocrats". Like the public option, the Volckerist position ("break up the banks") is easy and intuitive to understand. Also as in the case of the public option, I suspect the Volckerists will ultimately have the preponderance of polling evidence to show in their favor (although no polling has yet been conducted on the issue). In contrast to the public option, opinion among policy wonks is likely to be a little bit more evenly divided -- see for example the difference of opinion between Yves Smith and Simon Johnson, neither of whom have any inherent sympathy whatsoever for the banks.How the right will respond is less predictable, but this may become the issue that tests whether the "tea party" movement is ultimately more libertarian or populist in character. While on the one hand, the zeitgeist within the movement is to bemoan any government intervention in the economy, on the other hand, much of the impetus for the movement was the bailout bill and the deference that both the Obama and Bush administrations have shown toward Wall Street. I really don't know how they'll come down on this issue (initially, perhaps, they'll take whatever position that the White House doesn't), but it could be a defining one for the movement.Ultimately, I think there is more political upside than downside for the White House here, although there is plenty of both. I don't think the Republican Party as a whole can afford to take an anti-regulation stance. If they're afraid of handing Obama a bipartisan victory on the eve of the elections, they may simply argue that whatever type of regulation the Administration wants to do is the wrong kind. But without any agenda-setting powers, it's easy to envision them getting outmaneuvered. Meanwhile, the progressive left is likely to have a more specific viewpoint about what type of regulation is the right kind (Volckerist) and may drive the conversation on the issue, whereas the White House is liable to be reluctant to get engaged in a debate about details. Buckle your seatbelts -- it's going to be a bumpy ride.
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Older and Wealthier People are More Likely to Oppose Government Health CareYou will perhaps not be surprised to hear that people who are over 65 and with higher incomes are more likely to oppose government health care. But I was surprised the pattern was so strong:
(Click to see the full-size version.)The exact question wording was, "Providing health insurance for people who do not already have it--should the federal government spend more on it, the same as now, less, or no money at all?" Our maps show our estimated percentages of people responding "more" (rather than "the same," "less," or "none") to this question, within each age/income group, within each state.I apologize right now for only having data from 2000 and 2004. I'm trying to get more recent polling data, but in the meantime, the relative stability from 2000 to 2004 gives us a little bit of confidence that we're seeing something real here, not merely an election-year blip.Here's 2000 ("Providing health care for people who do not already have it--should the federal government spend more money on this, the same as now, less or no money at all?"):
Some changes have occurred since then--for one thing, the issue is now on the front burner politically, and survey respondents are now more evenly split on support for increased government involvement in health care. That's why we're focusing on the relative numbers here (with coloring defined relative to the national average) rather than absolute levels of support.Comparison with party identification and ideologyOK, so health care is opposed by oldsters and richies (or, at least it was in 2000 and 2004, but I have no reason to doubt this is still happening now). Is that just because these are where the Republicans are?No, it's not so simple.Here are maps of Democratic party identification (among those who identify with the Democrats or Republicans) in 2004 and 2000 (and, yes, we get similar pictures if we map vote intentions):
Richer people are more likely to identify as Republican. But, in comparison to the health care maps, we see almost nothing going on with age, and we see a lot more state-to-state variation.We made a similar set of maps showing political ideology:
This time, age makes a big difference. Older people are much more likely to identify as conservative--even in 2004, when Barack Obama was a mere senatorial candidate, and in 2000, before Obama was even born. But the interaction with income is much weaker than in the maps of health-care attitudes shown above.The age factorOne other thing. The age pattern on the top sets of maps above surprised us at first. After all, people over 65 have Medicare, which they're generally satisfied with, so why wouldn't they want this federal presence expanded? But, on second thought, maybe this makes sense: maybe they're suspicious of expanded government involvement in health care because they see it as competing with Medicare for scarce dollars. (And, remember, these graphs are from 2000 and 2004, so you can't attribute these patterns to any sort of recent political awakening involving Obama's plans.)But here's something that bothered us at first. When I posted on "Seniors Skeptical on Health Care Spending" a couple of months ago, it looked like a pretty steady and continuous drop in support by age; for example:
But in the top map above, there's a sharp fall-off after age 65. What's happening here? For the longest time I was sure we had a mistake, but then Daniel looked more carefully at the graphs of attitudes vs. age, and he pointed out that the graph is actually pretty flat between ages 30 and 60. From 18-30, there's a drop--the youngest voters are particularly supportive of increased federal spending on health insurance--but voter turnout is very low for those under 25, so these people don't show up so strongly in our summaries. Then, at the high end, the big dropoff occurrs beyond age 65: if you average all the over-65's into a single category, you'll see it's much lower than the younger age groups. So it all ended up making sense.Summary1. The age and income factors are huge.2. Opinion does not vary that much from state to state. People in liberal-leaning states are more supportive of Federal health care spending, and people in conservative states are less supportive, but the differences between states are small.P.S. Daniel Lee made these graphs, and Yu-Sung Su and Yair Ghitza helped with this project also. We're still working on the technical report that explains the details of our implementation of multilevel regression and postratification ("Mister P") for this and related examples.
Politico
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Barnes first woman to golf with POTUSBarnes joins Obama the same day that the NY Times runs the story 'Man's World at White House?'
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Dems sharp, GOP muted on Cheney jabSenators react to Dick Cheney's claim that Obama is "dithering" on his Afghanistan decision.
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GOP officials: We won't abandon DedeNRCC remains committed to embattled Dede Scozzafava in NY-23, party officials tell POLITICO.
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Sens. say health bill endgame in sightDemocrats are close to getting the 60 votes they need to pass health care reform, says Schumer.
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Hatch: 'I hope' Obama not delaying troop decision to help Corzine, DeedsHatch raises the prospect that Obama is delaying the troops decision due to political concerns.
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Afghan challenger warns of more fraudAbdullah says he is "very concerned" about the possibility of more fraud in a run-off election.
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Anti-incumbent backlash hits city hallsAmerica's mayors are the first group of politicians to fall victim to voters' economic frustrations.
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In his own image: Obama's DNCA new batch of spending reports reveals an unprecedented transformation of the DNC under Barack Obama.
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Obama declares swine flu a national emergencyBarack Obama address the H1N1 virus.
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This week in videoPOLITICO presents the best of this week's new in video.
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